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Nick Maggiulli x.com
Is $5M in Treasury Bills enough to be set for life? Kevin O'Leary (Mr. Wonderful) says yes. History says no. O'Leary is right...but not for the reason he thinks. My latest:
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18 September
17 September
15 September
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korrents.com
The typical AI researcher thinks there is roughly a 10% chance that AI will kill everyone.Their words
A few AI researchers pull up the average by being very certain that AI will kill everyone. But the typical AI researcher still thinks there's a ~10% chance that AI will kill everyone.
10 September
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Their words
Right now OpenAI is extremely dependent on CoT monitoring, everyone else depends on it quite a lot as well, and it looks like it may not last much longer, and that Astra already is on the edge of steganographic capabilities and can do substantial obfuscation if and only if it thinks you would think it is up to no good.
5 September
4 September
20 August
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korrents.com
Intelligence looks like a fact of physics: apply enough compute to matter and you get something that thinks.Their words
I mean it feels like a lot of physics. Like if you apply enough compute to matter, you get this thing that looks like intelligence.
11 August
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Their words
I think this constitution is in some sense very compatible with Claude doing huge amounts of power seeking because it thinks that will result in better outcomes.
7 August
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Their words
you do need to think about how do you get to revenue so that not just you can do it forever, but then you'll be valued on your long-term road map, not not valued on your probability of dying.
25 July
15 July
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Their words
But it's also your instruction budget is like if you give the model too many instructions and especially too many conflicting instructions and that's in your initial prompt and also like if you have a conversation you start going down a path and then you change your mind and you start going down a different you actually I don't want to do any of that I want to do this. It's like a it's a lot of computation the model has to do to notice that it has to ignore that whole thing.
2 July
26 June
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korrents.com
Running a model five times and keeping the best answer buys a higher benchmark score without buying a better model.Their words
Um so if you say okay well we're going to instead of just running this model once we're going to run it five times and take the best of the five responses or like ask a judge which one it thinks is best then you can get much higher scores than that model. And so it's really easy to make something that looks a lot better on paper but is actually not better once you control for the amount of test time compute.
16 June
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Their words
this is a period in which backwards is forwards, which is to say this is not a period that like us thinks of the future as where potential is and humanity might get better and better over time. The potential of humanity is recapturing Rome.
9 June
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Their words
And their idea is we must hash out our different differences with diplomats and lawyers cuz when you send the soldiers in, it is uh whatever gains you think you're going going to get are going to be inferior to what you would have done with the diplomats.
4 May
12 March
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Their words
Everybody thinks our schools are in crisis all the time because they’re being forced to do something they were never meant to do, which is to make everyone college-ready, and they’re being forced to do that because we have seen jobs that provide a living wage without a college diploma evaporate.
11 March
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Their words
But I'm serious, if you're working at a company that uses that gave you Copilot, they think that they're starting to move faster and there's a barbarian horde of people using Opus 4.5 that are going to destroy your company sooner or later.
7 January
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
In the Plex: How Google Thinks, Works, and Shapes Our LivesTheir words
Levy was given unprecedented access to Google, and the result is what I consider to be an accurate depiction of how the company operates. A good overview of how Google product managers work.
17 October 2025
From one piece Andrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Reinforcement learning is terrible, and it only looks good because everything we had before it was much worse.Their words
reinforcement learning is a lot worse than I think the average person thinks reinforcement learning is terrible. It just so happens that uh everything that we had before is much worse
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Their words
These models don't really have this distillation phase um of taking what happened, analyzing it, obsessively thinking through it, um basically doing some kind of a synthetic data generation process and distilling it back back into the weights
16 October 2025
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korrents.com
Fun can be a product's differentiator, even when the team thinks that is an absurd thing to compete on.Their words
The team was like what we're gonna make fun our differentiator and in retrospect it was absolutely the right move.
22 September 2025
21 September 2025
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korrents.com
No project run by a manager who privately thinks it is a bad idea has ever turned out wildly successful.Their words
I can tell you right now, every single manager I've ever managed where they're like, I don't really think this is a good idea. The there's no case where I can think of where the project somehow turned out to be like wildly successful.
19 September 2025
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Their words
And then I found a smoking gun: October 1943. Kuhn acknowledges that he receives half a gram of ergotamine, which is the precursor drug to LSD. And so it's highly likely that the Nazis used LSD together with mescaline in Dachau.
31 August 2025
16 July 2025
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Their words
1929, and man, history does rhyme. Too much leverage, too much risk. Everyone thinks it's going to be great. No one thinks it's going to go down a lot.
7 June 2025
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korrents.com
Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves.Their words
But anybody who thinks LLMs are a direct route to the sort AGI that could fundamentally transform society for the good is kidding themselves.
22 March 2025
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korrents.com
Tech's self-image as the smart people designing for dummies includes nobody, and it deserves to be destroyed.Their words
And so when I started streaming tech, my goal became to destroy whatever that tech mentality was, because it includes nobody. Everyone thinks that they're the smart people and they design for the dummies.
31 October 2024
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
What Your Professor Thinks You Already Know About US PoliticsTheir words
I forget (again!) how I chanced across it, but it fills a very real need for a lot of the students in my inequality class, and I intend to make it recommended/optional reading in the future. (I'll have to see if the library can buy a digital copy.)
1 October 2024
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Their words
So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots.
14 December 2023
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Their words
That's an inventor's greatest dream, is that their inventions are so successful that they are one day taken for granted. Nobody thinks of Amazon as an invention anymore. Nobody thinks of customer reviews as an invention.
16 June 2022
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korrents.com
Somebody with trauma should try a trauma-focused therapy such as EMDR before treating their nightmares directly.Their words
I would recommend that anyone who thinks they're suffering from trauma (eg PTSD) try a trauma-focused therapy like EMDR before trying to address nightmares directly, unless the nightmares are overwhelmingly worse than all their other trauma symptoms.
29 January 2021
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korrents.com
TSMC raises capital spending when it believes a wave of demand is coming, rather than after the demand has arrived.Their words
I think TSMC thinks a fat pitch is coming.
1 December 2020
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