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  A powerful technology available to everyone comes with built-in pacing, like mutually assured destruction or proliferation.

  Their words

  A powerful technology that is out there for everyone to use comes with built-in pacing. In a way it’s the truest form of MAD or proliferation.

  P(doom)lucumr.pocoo.org

Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.

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  AI-enabled cyberwarfare lacks an equivalent of nuclear deterrence's mutually assured destruction.

  Their words

  AI hacking doesn’t have mutually assured destruction, like nuclear warfare does.

  America is still beating China in the AI racenoahpinion.blog

Economist specialising in global income inequality; formerly lead economist in the World Bank research department, now at the CUNY Graduate Center and author of the Global Inequality and More newsletter.

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  The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History

  Their words

  It is a quick read, an excellent book whose main virtue is not, in my opinion, direct analogy with the World War I, but a treatment of how in a multipolar world relatively small international events, misunderstandings, idiosyncratic fits of leaders, “hubris and fear” (as Westad often writes), resentment of the elite and of the public prodded by the media, can produce colossal miscalculations which then produce even more colossal wars and, in the era of the weapons of mass destruction, may end the civilization.

  branko2f7.substack.com

Non-fiction writer, podcaster and occasional TV host. Author of thirteen books including The Ghost Map, Where Good Ideas Come From and Extra Life, host of the PBS series How We Got To Now, and author of the Adjacent Possible newsletter on innovation.

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  Some historical raiders destroyed conquered cities for destruction's own sake, not to seize land, treasure, or slaves.

  Their words

  The Sea Peoples did not invade lands to claim them as their own, or extract treasure or slaves to bring back to their homeland. They seemingly torched the great capitals of the Bronze Age just to watch them burn.

  The Uses Of Terroradjacentpossible.substack.com

Dutch bootstrapper who builds and runs their internet startups alone — Nomads.com, Remote OK, Hoodmaps, Photo AI and Interior AI — and has written about it at levels.io since 2013. Posts as @levelsio.

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  Roomba

  Their words

  matic vacuum (they gave me one so I have to disclose but it's GREAT, all the Roomba and Chinese ones suck)

  levels.io

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  Matic vacuum

  Their words

  matic vacuum (they gave me one so I have to disclose but it's GREAT, all the Roomba and Chinese ones suck)

  levels.io

Freelance research analyst and writer of the blog Aceso Under Glass, known for 'epistemic spot checks' of non-fiction claims.

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  Evangelizing religious movements are shaped by a creative-destruction dynamic that discards congregations that fail to grow.

  Their words

  Creative destruction is even more built into evangelism than I thought.

  Church Planting: Lessons from the Commentsacesounderglass.com

Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management; author of the Oaktree memos.

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  Transformative technologies reliably attract more investment and infrastructure than they need, and that excess is what speeds their adoption.

  Their words

  There’s a consistent history of transformational technologies generating excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in more infrastructure than is needed and asset prices that prove to have been too high. The excesses accelerate the adoption of the technology in a way that wouldn’t occur in their absence.

  Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com

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  Conversational interfaces get to the first seventy percent quickly and are bad at iteration; the future is chat married to traditional direct-manipulation controls.

  Their words

  Conversational UIs are great at quickly getting to the first 70%, but suck at offering easy controls over narrower areas for iteration.

  lg.substack.com

Economics professor at George Mason University and author of The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education and Open Borders. Writes Bet On It.

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  Standardised testing is a good idea badly executed: the tests in common use are the problem, not testing itself.

  Their words

  Standardized testing is glorious, but many standardized tests royally suck.

  What's Really Wrong With Standardized Testsbetonit.ai

Astrophysicist at the University of Rochester; works on the search for life elsewhere and wrote The Little Book of Aliens and Light of the Stars.

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  The visiting-aliens story is incoherent: a civilisation with the technology to stay hidden would not keep being spotted.

  Their words

  Like, okay, there's an advanced civilization that is visiting Earth regularly. They don't want to be detected. They've got super powerful technology, but they really suck at using it because we keep seeing them, we keep seeing them, but then they disappear. I mean, explain to me what rational world that works under.

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  The post-Cold War order, like the Versailles order before it, was badly structured at its inception and carried the seeds of its own destruction

  Their words

  Both systems were badly structured at their very inception (Versailles and the end of the Cold War). Both contained within themselves the seeds of destruction.

  Devant la guerrebranko2f7.substack.com

Founded SpaceX in 2002, joined Tesla's board in 2004 and became its chief executive in 2008; later founded Neuralink, The Boring Company and xAI. Bought Twitter in 2022 and renamed it X, where he now posts many times a day.

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  The Wages of Destruction

  Their words

  Some audiobook recommendations: The Story of Civilization by Durant Iliad (Penguin Edition) The Road to Serfdom by Hayek American Caesar by Manchester Masters of Doom by Kushner The Wages of Destruction by Tooze The Storm of Steel by Junger The Guns of August by Tuchman

  x.com

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  The Iliad

  Their words

  Some audiobook recommendations: The Story of Civilization by Durant Iliad (Penguin Edition) The Road to Serfdom by Hayek American Caesar by Manchester Masters of Doom by Kushner The Wages of Destruction by Tooze The Storm of Steel by Junger The Guns of August by Tuchman

  x.com

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  The Guns of August

  Their words

  Some audiobook recommendations: The Story of Civilization by Durant Iliad (Penguin Edition) The Road to Serfdom by Hayek American Caesar by Manchester Masters of Doom by Kushner The Wages of Destruction by Tooze The Storm of Steel by Junger The Guns of August by Tuchman

  x.com

+ 2 more

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  Storm of Steel

  Their words

  Some audiobook recommendations: The Story of Civilization by Durant Iliad (Penguin Edition) The Road to Serfdom by Hayek American Caesar by Manchester Masters of Doom by Kushner The Wages of Destruction by Tooze The Storm of Steel by Junger The Guns of August by Tuchman

  x.com

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  American Caesar

  Their words

  Some audiobook recommendations: The Story of Civilization by Durant Iliad (Penguin Edition) The Road to Serfdom by Hayek American Caesar by Manchester Masters of Doom by Kushner The Wages of Destruction by Tooze The Storm of Steel by Junger The Guns of August by Tuchman

  x.com

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  The gap between GPT-5 and GPT-4 will be as large as the gap between GPT-4 and GPT-3, and the job is to live a few years ahead and remember that today's tools will look terrible from there.

  OpenAI

  Their words

  I expect that the delta between 5 and 4 will be the same as between 4 and 3 and I think it is our job to live a few years in the future and remember that the tools we have now are going to kind of suck looking backwards at them and that’s how we make sure the future is better.

  youtube.com

Political scientist at the University of Chicago and the leading exponent of offensive realism; wrote The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.

• Our readingkorrents.com

  In a world of mutual assured destruction, nuclear weapons are used to manipulate risk rather than to win a battle.

  Their words

  The way you use nuclear weapons in that world is you use them for manipulation of risk purposes, demonstration effect. You put both sides out on the slippery slope.

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