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Razib Khan Newsletter
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16 September
13 September
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Their words
If there really is a high chance of AI leading to the extinction of humanity within years/decades, then the only rational stance towards safety monitoring and research pacing should be stringent, top-down government involvement and universally ratified international treaties.
12 September
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Their words
Astra can do almost as well as Fable, in a mode where CoT monitoring cannot work. Because there is no CoT to monitor.
11 September
10 September
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Their words
Right now OpenAI is extremely dependent on CoT monitoring, everyone else depends on it quite a lot as well, and it looks like it may not last much longer, and that Astra already is on the edge of steganographic capabilities and can do substantial obfuscation if and only if it thinks you would think it is up to no good.
8 September
From one piece Astra Is Hard to Monitor 2 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
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Their words
Even if everyone tries as hard as is plausible, Chain of Thought monitoring will probably never be easier than it is now and will get harder over time. In a year, chances are very high it will not be able to serve the function it is currently being asked to serve.
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Their words
If this is only due to gains in capabilities, that is extremely bad news, and it means CoT monitoring is unlikely to survive for another year unless we find a way to actively improve it, and it might not last six months.
6 September
From one piece An Alien Mind 3 beliefs · openai.com
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korrents.com
No lab has solved alignment and monitoring well enough to keep scaling at maximum speed much longer.Their words
Currently I believe that no lab has solved alignment and monitoring to a sufficient degree to continue responsibly scaling at maximum speed for much longer.
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korrents.com
Chain-of-thought monitoring is getting less reliable, not more, as models grow more capable.Their words
However, unfortunately our evaluations indicate our ability to rely on CoT monitoring is progressively diminishing.
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korrents.com
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.Their words
Still, I expect general AI progress to increasingly be bottlenecked by confidence in monitoring.
12 July
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Their words
new laws are like code that is pushed live to production without even being read (let alone tested), often in the face of tremendous opposition, affecting millions of citizens, with minimal monitoring to ensure they’re producing the desired results, an extremely slow customer feedback cycle, and few ways to truly opt out.
22 June
17 February
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Their words
I initially assumed this was a temporary divide. New users tend to watch closely and check the system's progress, but as trust builds, that scrutiny fades and monitoring starts to feel like a chore. Yet it still seems like there's two camps (for now).
3 August 2025
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korrents.com
Monitoring tools that do periodic work can themselves cause the latency outliers they were installed to diagnose.Their words
One performance anti-pattern is when a company, to debug one performance problem, installs a monitoring tool that periodically does work and causes application latency outliers.
20 April 2025
15 April 2023
14 December 2021
25 August 2020
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korrents.com
Building automation that doesn't address the actual bottleneck to shipping adds noise rather than helping ship.Their words
If what's holding you back from shipping is, say, getting more customer input, or a brittle release process, or flaky monitoring, or missing tests, then all the bot does is to add noise. It doesn't help you ship.
1 July 2017
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