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M.G. Siegler Newsletter
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20 September
19 September
17 September
16 September
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Their words
Jensen is a maximally cynical commercial and political actor whose one and only goal is to sell Nvidia chips to whoever he can, especially China.
Trump Goes Full Hoax on AI Existential Riskthezvi.substack.com
15 September
14 September
9 September
8 September
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Their words
We are at a point metallurgically where video games were at the start of the last console generation-upgrades aren't necessarily noticeable based on specs alone. And noticeable improvements require a huge increase in resources.
4 September
- Bluesky
- NewsletterInklings #025 📧
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korrents.com
The biggest problem in robotics today is data, not chips; chips become the bottleneck later.Their words
We should zoom out and recognize the biggest problem right now in robotics is actually data. One day it'll be chips, but for now it's data.
31 August
29 August
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Their words
Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder than just finding power, as you also need to build out all the transformers, wiring, liquid-cooling, (massive) chillers & complex networking.
25 August
20 August
17 August
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Their words
I can get to the emotion state from seeing a bear or smelling a bear or hearing a bear or hearing a twig snap, hearing somebody yell there's a bear. Zillions of different inputs completely unlike the rigid reflex which only has one input and that's it.
14 August
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korrents.com
Superintelligence bottoms out in mining, because both the chips and the energy it runs on come out of the ground.Their words
Chips come from the ground. Where's the energy come from? And a lot of people are like, "Oh, it comes from the sun." Yeah, it comes from the sun. But how are you capturing it from the sun? From stuff made from the ground, right?
6 August
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Their words
If you keep adding deadlines without also checking whether the workload itself is sustainable, you risk what I call Obliger-rebellion-the point where an Obliger who has met, met, met, and met expectations suddenly snaps and refuses to meet any more.
15 July
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korrents.com
Nobody has found keeping specs and code in sync worth the upkeep; the code stays the source of truth.Their words
I don't think anyone found it useful enough to like maintain a system to keep the specs and the code in sync versus just using the code as the source of truth always.
1 July
24 June
3 May
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Their words
The bottleneck has shifted from doing the work to writing clear specs and reviewing outputs fast enough to keep the pipeline moving-the middle is hollowing out.
26 April
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korrents.com
Software is not a moat, and the AI industry is only now discovering what Snap learned fifteen years ago.Their words
15 years ago we essentially learned that software is not a moat, right? Which is something that everyone is discovering today with AI, right?
15 April
From one piece Jensen Huang – Will Nvidia’s moat persist? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Because it's it's a bad business practice. You you set your price. You set your price and then and then people decide to buy it or not. And and um uh there there I I understand that that others in the chip industry um uh change their prices when demand is higher. Uh but we just don't we just don't that's just never been a practice of ours.
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Their words
And so you just have to first realize that chips exist in China. They manufacture 60% of the world's mainstream chips, maybe more. It's a very large industry for them. They have some of the world's greatest computer scientists.
13 March
From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Um DRAM gets released goes to AI chips who are willing to do longer term contracts, willing to pay higher margins, etc., etc. because at the end of the day, the margin that they extract is much larger from the end user or whatever. Um, and so this this this probably leads to like people hating AI even more, right?
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korrents.com
Anthropic saw the coming shortage of chips before Google did, and bought Google's own TPUs out from under it.Their words
Because Enthropic saw it before Google. And then Google had Nano Banano and Gemini 3 which caused their user metrics to skyrocket and leadership at Google was like oh and then they started making the statement of we have to double compute every is it 6 months or I don't remember the exact number that they said.
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Their words
So, space data centers effectively are not li limited by, you know, hey, we have this energy advantage. It's actually just limited by the same contended resource. We can only make 200 gawatts of chips a year by the end of the decade.
+ 2 more
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Their words
So when you look at inference at let's say 100 tokens a second for deepseek and kimk 2.5 hopper versus blackwell the performance difference is on the order of 20x
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Their words
Uh, Micron bought a fab from a company in Taiwan that makes lagging edge chips, right? Um, Heinix and Samsung are doing, you know, some pretty crazy things to try and expand capacity at their existing fabs, uh, that also have like very large knock-on effects in the economy. And so, hey, why can't we build more capacity is like there's nowhere to put the tools, right?
13 February
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Their words
The counterarguments against it are I'll politely call them fishy. Um, uh and yet it doesn't happen and we sell the chips because there's there's so much money. There's so much money riding on it.
12 February
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korrents.com
The real cost of the CHIPS Act is the technical talent it ties up, not its fifty-billion-dollar price tag.Their words
The CHIPS Act might still be a positive, but the cost is almost certainly many times the $50 billion price tag.
4 February
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Their words
As high-level programming cedes way to the prose compiler, making your goals and specs well understood to the ambiguity loop and showing good judgment is going to matter more than ever.
23 December 2025
16 November 2025
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korrents.com
Fair hardware benchmarks must use the best software and tuning for each hardware option, not hardware specs alone.Their words
The most accurate and realistic evaluation for HW involves selecting the best software and then tuning it, and doing this for all HW options.
4 September 2025
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Their words, before
There are obvious pricing problems in this scenario. With a new fab, a company can’t turn a profit selling a lagging-edge chip at the price that was previously dictated by a fully depreciated fab. Prices have to go up.
Their words now
The COVID super-cycle, plus a new China supply line that does not care about capacity economics, points to a forever glut.
15 August 2025
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Their words
They're focused on the chips, right? Because they understand like the key bottleneck is the chips, not the solar power, right?
13 August 2025
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Their words
And remember that DeepSeek happened in times of crisis, urgency, not in times of comfort. A lot of these technological breakthroughs and leapfrogging happens in times of crisis. This is called crisis innovation. And you got to thank the US for that. When the Chinese were comfortably importing chips from the US, the whole industry stalled for 20 years.
8 June 2025
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korrents.com
Graphics chips have far more room for future performance gains than CPUs, which are nearing physical limits.Their words
GPUs are not nearly as restricted in their future progress as CPUs which are far more constrained in how they can physically improve (compiler-driven ILP only goes so far).
17 June 2024
3 May 2024
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korrents.com
The same law that made chips cheaper made the factories that produce them enormously more expensive.Their words
These enormous costs are ultimately due to the same factor that has steadily driven down the cost of semiconductors: Moore’s Law, the observation that the number of components on an integrated circuit tends to double every two years.
How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fabconstruction-physics.com
10 April 2024
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