Frustratingly, the actual code it ran and exact details of what it did weren’t visible to me in the ChatGPT UI. I see this lack of transparency is an anti-feature.
There is also a very important step called randomization. Is that you have to take the same environment and then randomize the conditions. So, the cable doesn't literally only, you know, uh bend this way. It can bend a different way or the box can have different sizes, colors, different lids, and all that.
Then there's another possibility which is that it actually already has worked but just the productivity boost isn't as big as would be obvious if people got 10% more productive. That would still be pretty impressive because it's hard to get a 10% across the board uplift.
Because one can measure these things, one can monitor this debt dynamic happening, so it’s easy to see problems approaching. I’ve used this diagnostic process in my investing and I’ve kept it to myself, but I’m now explaining it in detail in How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle because it is too important to keep to myself.
So, we're going to see people get into those where they're like, "Well, I vibe code the tip of the iceberg. I throw away the rest of the iceberg and now I'm in trouble because now I don't know what to do. Now I get to these downstream problems that I didn't even know existed." So, we're going to see on the on the side of the the the vibe coding replacers, we're going to see that kind of a naivity play out.
I suspect the same is often true in the rest of Europe: NIMBYism is the ultimate reason why the French and German states don’t solve their housing shortages through unbanning densification, but since the claims of the NIMBYs have been preemptively conceded by everyone, NIMBYism has basically remained latent.
And I think if you're outside of that frontier lab, your your judgment fundamentally will start to drift because you're not part of the you know, what's coming down the line. And so I feel like my judgment will inevitably start to drift as well.
we are moving into a world very quickly this year where proof of work is so important and I mean proof of work not in the Bitcoin sense but your proof of what you have done, your resume. And I don't mean your resume because nobody's going to believe that. I mean the actual work that you did which has to be visible
that work is not being wasted. It's just being stored. You know, it's kind of like complaining about heating an ice cube up a little bit and it not melting yet. It's like, well, you just haven't hit the phase transition. So, but that's where people give up.
The stronger such policies are, the more "absence of evidence" (lack of visible whistleblowing or lawsuits) can become "evidence of absence" (regarding flagrant violations).
Assuming you are still hiring junior engineers (you really should be even in this AI era), the good ones will learn quickly and want to see career progress in their first few years of working.
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