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korrents.com
AIs past this point should not be assumed to treat their chain of thought as unmonitored.Their words
Do not assume that any AI, past this point, assumes its CoT is unmonitored.
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Lilian Weng Blog
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19 September
18 September
17 September
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korrents.com
Dependency cooldowns are currently the best defense against supply chain attacks via compromised package publishers.Their words
I guess our best defense right now is dependency cooldowns - giving new package releases a few days before upgrading to them, in the hope that supply chain attacks like this will be spotted by someone else.
16 September
15 September
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Their words
Someone needs to define the unit, perhaps using a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which can be solved by a single model.
14 September
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korrents.com
Text that relies on an LLM for its structure will score badly on Pangram even after substantial human editing.Their words
if you rely on an LLM to give your text structure, it will score badly on Pangram even if you do plenty of edits over it.
12 September
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Their words
Astra can do almost as well as Fable, in a mode where CoT monitoring cannot work. Because there is no CoT to monitor.
11 September
10 September
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Their words
Right now OpenAI is extremely dependent on CoT monitoring, everyone else depends on it quite a lot as well, and it looks like it may not last much longer, and that Astra already is on the edge of steganographic capabilities and can do substantial obfuscation if and only if it thinks you would think it is up to no good.
9 September
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Their words
GPT-6 Astra (and likely any LLM in the foreseeable future) is still a reasoning model.
8 September
From one piece Astra Is Hard to Monitor 2 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
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Their words
Even if everyone tries as hard as is plausible, Chain of Thought monitoring will probably never be easier than it is now and will get harder over time. In a year, chances are very high it will not be able to serve the function it is currently being asked to serve.
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Their words
If this is only due to gains in capabilities, that is extremely bad news, and it means CoT monitoring is unlikely to survive for another year unless we find a way to actively improve it, and it might not last six months.
6 September
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korrents.com
Chain-of-thought monitoring is getting less reliable, not more, as models grow more capable.Their words
However, unfortunately our evaluations indicate our ability to rely on CoT monitoring is progressively diminishing.
4 September
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Their words
This kind of thing will be exploited. Think Solar Winds–style supply chain attacks.
1 September
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Their words
But keep those methods you use to investigate things and monitor things very separate from the methods you use to generate reward which is something that AI companies including open AAI have held up as a principle especially in the case of avoiding putting training pressure on the chain of thought. So you might have monitors that read the agents chain of thought in order to alert you if something is going wrong somewhere but you don't train the agents with the outputs of that monitor.
28 August
27 August
26 August
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Their words
the performance of your software is generally determined by the longest serial dependency chain because it's something that cannot be parallelized.
30 July
21 July
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Their words
So you went from a business chain of customer > app > ai model provider To customer > ai model provider The app layer is possibly getting removed!
4 July
30 June
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Their words
And I think a good exposition you care a little bit less about like correctness on the way, but you can like deliberately craft things that are a little bit wrong that you correct along the way that gets like edited out in a crowd source environment.
28 June
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Their words
But now with Claude Code on my VPS in the last year, it just live edits on my production server, which sounds like it should go wrong but it just doesn't, it's very careful and only twice in 12 months messed up which meant my site didn't load for 10 seconds which is OK
22 June
18 June
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Their words
And you have to have a robust and resilient supply chain. You cannot just depend on one or two player in different geographical. And so, I think, you know, the more and more people going to realize making in United States is critical.
5 June
4 June
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I do think there's this qualitative shift that we I think we agree is coming, which is that there will be at least some goods whose network-adjusted capital share goes to one, right? Because the whole supply chain can be automated and there's no part in it that we care intrinsically about having a human do. Um, so that'll be a, you know, that'll be a qualitative shift. Interestingly, the implications of that shift for the overall capital share are ambiguous
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Their words
there's a sense in which nothing's yet been completely automated. If you look at the network-adjusted factor shares of a good, which is to say you look down the supply chain and say not just like the final step, but how much of that is done by capital and labor, but what went into the machines that can automate that final step. You'll find that labor's adding a lot of value down the supply chain.
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Their words
So, I think there is a world where it is concentrated, in which case it's going to be really hard to index AGI. There is another world where it is not It's electricity, then like basically every company has access to AGI. So, you just buy you use buy the index. So, like, you know, Nigeria just needs to buy the index.
25 April
22 April
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Their words
if a revoked user still wants to, say, vandalize a document, they can just backdate their edits, give it an earlier timestamp. So, relying on clocks is absolutely useless here because people can forge the timestamps from those clocks and thereby then potentially undermine the access control mechanism.
15 April
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Their words
And so none of that my point is that none of the bottlenecks last longer than a couple 2 three years. None of them.
6 April
31 March
24 March
23 March
13 March
From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
As we move from, you know, hey, [clears throat] these companies are selling tokens where they provide the entire uh reasoning chain and all that to uh selling automated, you know, white collar work, right? Automated software engineer, send them the request, they give you the result back and there's a bunch of thinking on the back end that they don't show you. The ability to distill out of American models into Chinese models will be harder.
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Their words
Um in general the semiconductor supply chain has not right it's lived through the booms and bust and uh we can talk a bit more about it but basically no one you know some players as of very recently have like woken up but in general no one really sees demand for 200 gawatts a year of AI chips or you know trillions of dollars of spend a year in the semiconductor supply chain.
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Their words
Yeah, I think the biggest bottleneck is compute and for that the longest lead time supply chains are not power or data centers. They're actually the semiconductor supply chain themselves, right? It switches back from being power and data center uh as a major bottleneck to chips.
+ 2 more
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Their words
oh 50 gigawatts of economic you know sort of capex in in the data center and what gets built on top of that in terms of tokens is even larger right it might be hundred billion dollars worth of AI value into the supply chain is held up by this $1.2 two billion dollars worth of tooling that simply just cannot expand its supply chain quickly.
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Their words
Um, just shipping out all the engineers and blowing up the fabs means China has a stronger semiconductor supply chain than the rest of the world, right?
11 January
4 January
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Likedrcmnd.app
The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology, and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on EarthTheir words
Nicolas Niarchos, The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology, and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth is a good treatment of minerals issues as they relate to the Congo today.
1 December 2025
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Sublime TextTheir words
After many years, Sublime Text remains one of my favourite code editors. I still often use it to edit huge files or to make heavy edits through its powerful find and replace feature.
16 November 2025
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Their words
You cannot go back. If the solution you offer recreate any of the Supply Chain framework problem, then your solution is Dead On Arrival.
14 October 2025
17 September 2025
13 September 2025
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korrents.com
Nine tenths of the cost of Mars Sample Return comes from a single planetary-protection requirement.Their words
something like 90% of the complexity and cost of MSR is driven by a requirement that the samples “break the chain” on the way home
15 August 2025
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Their words
And I think the United States could probably do that in 2 years or less if you started today. Like it's currently 11:00, so like we're going to start cutting checks by noon.
29 July 2025
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Their words
In our world, we know of no escape from poverty other than climbing the value chain.
15 May 2025
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Their words
But, China mainly dominates these markets because it has produced a long-term industrial strategy for these technologies and has honed an optimised, modern supply chain as a result.
1 May 2025
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Their words
model CoTs could be biased due to lack of explicit training objectives aimed at encouraging faithful reasoning
6 April 2025
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Their words
That’s because America has an amazing consumer supply chain, one of the best, if not the best in the world, but this is totally different from having an industrial supply chain.
12 March 2025
2 April 2024
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Their words
It marks a watershed moment in open source supply chain security, for better or worse.
9 July 2023
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Likedrcmnd.app
Visual Studio CodeTheir words
Visual Studio Code is my current editor. I've been using it for a few years now and I don't have any reason to switch. I do use vim for quick edits.
5 February 2023
26 August 2022
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Their words
The specificity matters here because each innovation in the chain required not merely the discovery of the principle, but also the design and an economically viable use-case to all line up in order to have impact.
15 June 2022
1 February 2021
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Their words
No matter what your model of obesity is, in order to explain the development of an obese body, energy imbalance has to be a link in the model’s causal chain.
19 June 2020
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
An Opinionated Guide to ML ResearchTheir words
This from John Schulman is worth reading: http://joschu.net/blog/opinionated-guide-ml-research.html
19 May 2020
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