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David Spiegelhalter
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The effects of communicating scientific uncertainty on trust and decision making in a public health context
accurately uncertain crises
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14 September
Essayist, journalist and independent researcher on Chinese politics, strategy and cultural history; author of the blog The Scholar's Stage.
With all respect to Chris, who has done much great work in this area, I do not agree. A Global Times “quick take” editorial is not the sort of government communique that “clearly and unmistakably” communicates anything. Between them the PRC government and the CPC have many organs and forums more authoritative than this, all better suited for drawing lines in the sand. A GT editorial should not be dismissed, but it is worth asking—if Xi’s mind was made up on the matter, why he would choose *this* uncertain venue to make point? Were I to sift the tea leaves, I would say this: to me this looks l… Quoting @ChrisRMcGuire The Chinese government has now clearly and unmistakably rejected serious collaboration with the United States on AI safety. This was a predictable development. It is also a clarifying moment for the importance of U.S. export controls on AI chips and other technologies, which are now indisputably a… government Related
24 August
Computer science professor at Georgetown University and author of Deep Work, Digital Minimalism and Slow Productivity; writes about focus, technology and work at calnewport.com and hosts the Deep Questions podcast.
20 August
Political scientist and Baptist pastor; writes Graphs about Religion, charting American religious life from survey data.
America
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Which means that they aren’t sliding all the way to the other side of the spectrum. Instead, they are just moving one level down.
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graphsaboutreligion.com
17 August
Machine-learning researcher on open language models; writes the Interconnects newsletter and the RLHF Book, after leading post-training at Ai2.
9 July
Short-story writer and novelist; won the Booker Prize for Lincoln in the Bardo, and teaches craft weekly in Story Club.
24 May
Organizational psychologist and professor at the Wharton School. Author of Give and Take, Originals, Think Again and Hidden Potential, host of the Re:Thinking podcast, and writer of the GRANTED newsletter.
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People are more drawn to arrogant leaders in an uncertain world, because they mistake swagger for strength and skill.
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adamgrant.substack.com
19 February
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
OSR questioning the Covid Inquiry's claim that modelling 'established' 23,000 fewer deaths if mandatory lockdown imposed a week earlier on March 16th. In fact this estimate is not only very uncertain, but also assumes voluntary measures were brought forward a week, to March 9th Quoting @StatsRegulation We have today written to the Covid-19 inquiry regarding the presentation of statistical modelling in the Executive Summary of its Module 2 report👇 Related
13 February
Programmer, teacher and speaker; long-time Microsoft developer-community figure, host of the Hanselminutes podcast and author of the hanselman.com blog.
Had an amazing two days speaking to thousands of developers on how to navigate the uncertain future. One thing that really struck me though was the number of times people said things like I read your book in high school or I learned this language from your video, and now these folks are senior engineers at big companies I’ve only been doing this for like what, five years? Crazy 👴 Related
17 December 2024
Venture capitalist and founder of Theory Ventures, previously a partner at Redpoint. Writes a near-daily blog on startups, SaaS metrics, data and AI.
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I’ve read every one of his books, & this is the most recent
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tomtunguz.com
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A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one
sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at
korrents.com .
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said.
The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in
korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who
else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public
statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
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About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they
do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in
this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the
serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to
quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter,
especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked
article and a belief on korrents.com
are left in their original language.
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