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Tyler Cowen Podcast
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16 September
1 September
31 August
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Their words
And that's why we say motivation is 90% of the problem or the solution because you have to be able to motivate the person to engage with these personalized lessons to learn it.
26 August
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Their words
Then there's another possibility which is that it actually already has worked but just the productivity boost isn't as big as would be obvious if people got 10% more productive. That would still be pretty impressive because it's hard to get a 10% across the board uplift.
11 August
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korrents.com
There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040.Their words
By 2040 um let's see uh maybe around 35 or 40%.
10 August
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Their words
We did the the numbers and the numbers are more like 0.3%. We scanned all 67,000. We shipped the we shipped the paper. But you know a correction never travels as far as a scare.
2 August
From one piece This CPO regrets that product management exists | Tom Verrilli (CPO of Whatnot) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
People who manage product managers should still spend almost all of their own time doing individual contributor work.Their words
There's like I think four or five people across the team who manage other PMs. All of them would spend 90 plus percent of their time doing IC work. I'm still probably 50% of my time doing IC work personally.
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Their words
most of commerce in America isn't actually high intent. Like how many years are we into e-commerce now? Like 30 years into e-commerce and e-commerce has never exceeded 20% of retail spend in America.
30 July
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Their words
And if they're completely failing, that's probably a good sign. If they're kind of able to do some of it but not very well, that's maybe not a great sign because that's a probably a a sign that the capability is starting to be present in those models and with more training data or larger scale models or or whatever it's likely to get better. So um you know look for something where the model succeeds 0% or 1% of the time not not 20%.
15 July
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Their words
you can slow way down and read every PR and read every line of code. Uh, and then you're only going to really get modest benefits from AI because that becomes I I think you should expect maybe 30 to 50% lift in productivity is kind of what I see when we go into teams
13 July
From one piece How to Improve Your Memory & Cognitive Function at Any Age | Dr. Alan Castel 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And actually, after the age of 40, most people feel about 20% younger than their actual age.
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Their words
But in the walking group the group that was randomly assigned to walk three four times a week for 40 minutes compared to a stretching group who's still engaging in exercise but not cardiovascular exercise. The walking group their you know hippocamp is actually increased in volume by 1%. So you're changing the the brain, but you're also changing the behavior. Their memory was much better a year later.
30 June
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Their words
It becomes insufferable like as a mathematician because you you would basically be like I'm every single time I see one of these I kind of don't know if it's worth my time even if 99 out of 100 of them are right.
9 June
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Their words
Sanctions are like economic chemotherapy. What you're doing is presenting preventing one or two percent growth per annum even with leaky sanctions, right?
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Their words
the whole industry is is kind of stuck in this world where they make a lot of money because it is this way. But there's zero reason why it should cost 2 or 3%. Just zero.
8 May
From one piece David Reich – Bronze Age shock, the Neanderthal puzzle, & the sudden spread of farming 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So we're talking about strong measurable selection coefficients on the order of half a percent or more in this study and all of those are going to work in small populations or large populations. It's not going to be affected by the population size.
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Their words
but it is the tracer dye, right? Like it tracks into European languages and important aspects of Indo-European culture are coming through Yamnaya.
6 May
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