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Economist at George Mason University, co-author of Marginal Revolution, host of Conversations with Tyler. Writes in short, dense claims about economics, culture and AI, and has moved position on AI in public more than once.

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  Manhattan Project scientists underweighted institutional responses such as second-strike forces and mutually assured retaliation when judging the likelihood of catastrophic nuclear war.

  Their words

  They tended to underweight the endogenous response of political and military institutions to the catastrophe—the emergence of second-strike forces, elaborate command systems, crisis management, and above all mutually assured retaliation.

  marginalrevolution.com

Writer and podcaster; co-author of Abundance with Ezra Klein, a staff writer at The Atlantic from 2008 to 2025, and host of the Plain English podcast.

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  AI industry leaders publicly call for slowing AI development while continuing to accelerate it themselves.

  Their words

  Judging by their words, AI luminaries are begging the world to force them to hit the brakes. Judging by their work, these same people are pressing down on the accelerator with every fiber of their being.

  AI Safety Is Having a Momentderekthompson.org

Founder of Scale AI and, since 2025, Chief AI Officer at Meta, where he leads the company’s superintelligence lab.

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  AI has ended the David-versus-Goliath era of startups: a startup that properly embraces agents can now easily outcompete incumbents.

  startups

  Their words

  And now I actually think with the power of agents um and AI broadly speaking, it's much closer to Goliath versus Goliath. Like I think but maybe the startup is like a Mecca Goliath that is like vastly enhanced by the power of agents and AI and you know, the the large companies are the sort of like more traditional Goliath, so to speak. But I think that startups now like if you properly embrace AI agents and um figure out the way to leverage their strengths in the most like ambitious ways, you can easily outcompete incumbents.

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Founded PSPDFKit in 2011 and ran it for a decade. Came back from a break to work on AI agents — the OpenClaw project, and OpenAI, joined in February 2026. Writes at steipete.me.

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  Working with coding agents is a skill you learn like an instrument; judging the tools after one try is like calling a piano bad after one go.

  coding agents

  Their words

  It's the same way as you have to play with a guitar before you can make good music. It's, it's not, oh, I, I touch it once and it just flows off. It, it's a, it's a, a skill that you have to learn like any other skill.

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Programmer, teacher and speaker; long-time Microsoft developer-community figure, host of the Hanselminutes podcast and author of the hanselman.com blog.

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  Impressive one-shot AI coding demos are not a good way to judge AI coding ability.

  Their words

  People should not be judging AI-augmented coding by "1 shots."

  The danger of glamourizing one shotsfeeds.hanselman.com

Vice chairman of Ogilvy & Mather Group, the advertising agency; author of Alchemy (2019) and the Wiki Man columnist at The Spectator.

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  People judge an organisation by the humans they deal with, because judging other people is the task evolution equipped them for.

  Their words

  We don't really have much evolved experience in evaluating postal efficiency, do we? Okay, we have quart of a million half a million years of evolved experience in deciding who to like and trust because for most of our evolutionary, you know, existence, that was one of the most fi five most important questions to get right.

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German writer and historian; wrote Blitzed, on drug use in Nazi Germany, and Tripped.

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  LSD is not a truth drug and never could be — it takes you toward your own truth, not out of it.

  energy

  Their words

  They miserably failed because LSD… Is not the truth drug. LSD maybe leads you closer to your own truth, because when suddenly the default mode network receives less energy and other parts of the brain think more, and the neuroplasticity of the brain is enhanced and stimulated, you might understand something about your life.

  youtube.com

Zurich-based value investor who ran the Aquamarine Fund from 1997 to 2025 and wrote The Education of a Value Investor. He hosts the VALUEx gathering in Klosters and publishes a podcast and newsletter.

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  AI-enhanced access to information makes copying top investors' strategies smarter than ever before.

  Their words

  There is more access to information than ever before. And that access is only enhanced by AI. Times could not be better for shameless cloners.

  Long Live the Shameless Clonersguyspier.com

Machine-learning researcher on open language models; writes the Interconnects newsletter and the RLHF Book, after leading post-training at Ai2.

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  Humans keep their place in AI as judges rather than authors, because telling which of two answers is better is far easier than writing a good one.

  Their words

  And humans are actually very good at reading or judging between two things versus... This goes back to the core of what RLHF and preference tuning is that it's hard to generate a good answer for a lot of problems, but it's easy to see which one is better.

  youtube.com

Co-founder of Y Combinator and Viaweb; essayist at paulgraham.com.

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  In practice "hire good people and give them room to do their jobs" often means hiring professional fakers and letting them drive the company into the ground.

  Their words

  Except in practice, judging from the report of founder after founder, what this often turns out to mean is: hire professional fakers and let them drive the company into the ground.

  Founder Modepaulgraham.com

Neuroscientist at UC Davis; studies memory and wrote Why We Remember.

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  Torture and enhanced interrogation produce what the interrogator wants to hear rather than what happened, because stress shuts down the machinery that checks a memory's accuracy.

  Their words

  And from what I understand, the research actually shows that they just produce what people want to hear, not necessarily the information that is being looked for.

  youtube.com

Theoretical physicist and philosopher, Homewood Professor of Natural Philosophy at Johns Hopkins and fractal faculty at the Santa Fe Institute. Writes the Preposterous Universe blog and hosts the Mindscape podcast.

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  Judging an AI by how close it is to a human is the mistake: appreciating what it can actually do is both more accurate and better protection against its dangers.

  Their words

  And rather than trying to ask, how close is it to being a human-like intelligent, we should appreciate it for what its capabilities are, and that will both be more accurate and help us put it to work and protect us from the dangers better rather than always anthropomorphizing it.

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Founder and chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management, the activist investment firm he started in 2004.

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  Judging how wide a company's moat is is the hardest thing an investor does, and this is the most disruptable period in history.

  Their words

  The most difficult analysis to do as an investor is that, is kind of figuring out how wide is the moat, how much at risk is the business to disruption? And we're in, I would say, the greatest period of disruptability in history.

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

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  Judging by output kept near potential despite weak private demand, Japan's decades of high debt and low inflation reflect a qualified policy success, not failure.

  inflationinterest rates

  Their words

  Japanese macroeconomic policy is often characterized as a failure, with the central bank unable to achieve its inflation target, a low growth rate, and debt ratios steadily rising to reach more than 170% for net debt and 250% for gross debt. I think it should be seen instead as a qualified success, with the use of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies to compensate for very weak private demand: Output has remained close to potential.

  Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Ratesdirect.mit.edu

Indonesian software engineer, educator and engineering manager at Zero One Group; open-source enthusiast writing at ripandis.com.

• Likedrcmnd.app

  Ghostty

  Their words

  Combination of Oh My Zsh with Ghostty terminal makes the terminal more informative and productive. Enhanced with plugins like zsh-autosuggestions and fzf.

  ripandis.com