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Their words
AI plausibly increases the risk at the margin. Whether that increase is small or catastrophic depends on factors such as AI capability trajectories, biosecurity responses, governance, etc.
What AI can and cannot do in biosecurityyourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
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Austin Vernon Blog
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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16 September
14 September
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korrents.com
Climate change made the July 2025 Texas flooding more intense than it otherwise would have beenTheir words
Given that we can connect increases in PWAT to global warming, we can confidently conclude that climate change made this rain event more intense than it otherwise would have been.
The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Recordtheclimatebrink.com
13 September
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Their words
Now recently the U.S. economy has experienced a huge positive shock to its Intelligence, with more to come. The core prediction is that this increases marginal returns, employment, and real wages in the Polanyi knowledge sector.
A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com
11 September
8 September
7 September
1 September
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korrents.com
Comparative policy analysis should be done at the level of sovereign countries, not provinces or regions within them.Their words
But it's not meaningfully possible to understand the world at this scale - macroregions are real but analysis of policy, including transportation but also the usual economic and social topics, has to be down at the level of sovereign states first with no illusion that a province in a large country is comparable to a smaller country.
19 August
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Their words
if I was stuck in this traffic every day in a car, I would go insane. No amount of self driving would change that. We need ACs, but the US badly needs to warm up to public transportation.
18 August
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Their words
A high price naturally increases turnover, as people come and go.
12 August
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Their words
without metadata prompting when you add lower quality data from 80% data to 100% data the performance actually decreases which is perhaps not too surprising because you're adding lowquality data to your data mixture whereas with the metadata prompting the performance actually increases when you add that lowquality data
30 July
13 July
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Their words
but as you get older that tends to decline with age which I thought was kind of perplexing because I you know a lot of curious people but we found that levels of state curiosity when I give you some interesting bit of information but I don't give you the answer if it's something you care about that actually increases with age your level of curiosity and learning.
5 May
22 April
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korrents.com
Scalability is not a property a system has; it is the set of mechanisms it has for coping with a change in load.Their words
Scalability is just like what mechanisms we have for dealing with changes in load. If load increases, how can we add computing capacity to a system, for example, so that the system still continues working?
19 March
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Their words
I call it the lethal trifecta because the only guaranteed solution is to cut off one of the legs.
14 March
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Their words
LLMs make it easy for anyone to add new features to the product. Even before AI, teams were battling feature creep, where the product becomes increasingly complex, bloated, and cluttered.
25 January
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Their words
So what usually h what often happens is you raise prices and signups don't change. When I say signups, I mean the like signups per month, you know, the rate at sign or signups go up. This happens all the time.
15 January
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korrents.com
Public scrutiny of a new technology tends to jump only after a deadly incident, otherwise rising slowly over decadesTheir words
Scrutiny typically either jumps several points on any 10-point scale after an incident that kills a bunch of people, or increases very slowly over decades.
8 December 2025
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Their words, before
we will see batteries aggressively displace transmission as the most cost-effective way to ensure continuity of electricity supply, leading to an eventual pruning of the grid and drastic reduction in the average distance that power travels between production and consumption, even as the average time that power is stored increases.
Their words now
Do we need to drastically expand the grid in order to metabolize renewables? No.
16 October 2025
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Their words
Have we seen productivity increases? Yeah, mild to moderate, but like that is not something that has made our new headcount we want for engineering go down.
13 October 2025
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Their words
empirically cortisol promotes fat storage and muscle breakdown, and increases insulin resistance.
18 September 2025
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korrents.com
The difficulty of raising more children increases gradually enough that parents adapt to it without noticing.Their words
It rarely gets hard all at once. You slide into the new level of challenge without really noticing it.
12 September 2025
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Their words
So, I think it'll be the same thing that that we'll see an increase in the scope that we're giving that we're willing to give to the robots as they get better and better where initially the scope might be like there is a particular thing you do like you're making the coffee or something. Uh whereas as they get more capable, as their ability to have common sense and a broader repertoire of tasks increases, then we'll give them greater scope. Now you're running the whole coffee shop.
14 June 2025
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Their words
Yeah, these are great work that shows what's possible. The approach doesn't scale currently. Three days of Google's server time can solve one high school math format there. This is not a scalable prospect, especially with the exponential increase as the complexity increases.
15 May 2025
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Their words
That’s because most clean energy jobs are in deployment and maintenance rather than manufacturing, and since higher costs slow down the rollout of renewables, increasing prices reduces the total number of people working in clean energy (even if the number working in manufacturing increases).
23 March 2025
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Their words
which is number one, you can measure product market fit. Number two, you can optimize product market fit. Number three, you can systematically even numerically increase product market fit. And number four, you can even have an algorithm write your road map for you.
12 March 2025
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korrents.com
At the national level there is no clear evidence that more education raises living standards at all.Their words
At the national level, it’s not clear that education increases living standards at all, much less that education makes countries’ living standards increase at a faster rate.
3 February 2025
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Their words
To some extent, training a model does effectively nothing. They have a model. The thing that Dario is sort of speaking to is the implementation of that model, once trained to then create huge economic growth, huge increases in military capabilities, huge increases in productivity of people, betterment of lives.
22 December 2024
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Their words
And this is important, so yes, you should expect legs or jointed sticks, how many joints they're going to be? Anybody's guess. Do you expect humanoids, things with a sensing apparatus on top of a shoulder with two arms and two legs? That's probably a pretty random set of occurrences that led to that.
24 September 2024
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Their words
as the Bitcoin ecosystem matures, infrastructure improves, and more regulatory clarity emerges, I expect the frequency of these 'Black Swan' events to diminish over time.
3 May 2024
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korrents.com
Every new process node makes a fab about 30 per cent more expensive to build than the one before it.Their words
For modern semiconductor fabs, each new process node increases fab cost by about 30%.
How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fabconstruction-physics.com
30 April 2024
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korrents.com
Debt is best understood as narrowing the range of outcomes you can survive, not as a cost of capital.Their words
I think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life.
18 March 2024
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Their words
I think when a system can significantly increase the rate of scientific discovery in the world, that’s a huge deal. I believe that most real economic growth comes from scientific and technological progress.
10 January 2024
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korrents.com
Grinding raises output briefly while destroying the creativity and big-picture thinking the work depends on.Their words
The reality is that grinding, even if it temporarily increases output, kills creativity and big picture thinking.
6 November 2023
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Their words, before
If the future is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers—that is, the issuance of debt without a subsequent increase in taxes—may well be feasible. Put bluntly, public debt may have no fiscal cost.
Their words now
Across advanced economies, the celebrated ( r - g ), i.e., the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate, appears to have durably changed sign or, at a minimum, to have gone from a substantially negative number to a number closer to zero.
1 October 2023
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Their words
As it turns out, after Schumpeter wrote most recessions were caused by either the bursting of asset price bubbles, monetary policy mistakes (unnecessary deflations), or sharp increases in the price of oil.
6 June 2023
From one piece A Climate Killer Disguised as a Climate Solution 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
The world spends an area larger than California growing under four per cent of its transport fuel.Their words
The world now uses a land mass larger than California to grow less than 4 percent of our transportation fuel.
A Climate Killer Disguised as a Climate Solutionmichaelgrunwald.substack.com
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Their words
It’s not exactly news that the American government’s support for biofuels increases food prices, intensifies global hunger and wastes taxpayer dollars.
A Climate Killer Disguised as a Climate Solutionmichaelgrunwald.substack.com
2 February 2023
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Their words
As a project gets more popular in the ecosystem, the workload increases but the value of that project for the company stays the same, so resources don’t increase accordingly.
21 January 2023
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Their words
The temptation to enshittify is magnified by the blocks on interoperability: when Twitter bans interoperable clients, nerfs its APIs, and periodically terrorizes its users by suspending them for including their Mastodon handles in their bios, it makes it harder to leave Twitter, and thus increases the amount of enshittification users can be force-fed without risking their departure.
12 September 2022
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korrents.com
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.Their words
I think this matches the general finding that AI progress is faster than expected, and increases my certainty that scale and normal progress can sometimes be enough to solve even very difficult problems.
1 June 2022
From one piece Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Rates 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I have argued that the probability of a bad equilibrium is only marginally influenced by the level of debt, but can be much reduced by a contingent rule making the primary balance react to an increase in debt service.
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inflationinterest ratesgovernment
Their words
Governments have not been bailed out by their central banks. As I discussed earlier, central bank intervention does not reduce the overall liabilities of the consolidated government, just their composition. And it does not automatically lead to more inflation: It increases the size of the balance sheet of the central bank, but it does not increase the size of the non-interest-paying money stock.
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Their words
A longer maturity of debt protects the government from a temporary increase in the short run interest rate, and it gives it more time to adjust to a permanent increase.
11 May 2022
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Their words
There is essentially zero correlation - the metros with the largest rent increases had added population / added housing ratios no different than metros with smaller rent increases.
31 August 2020
30 January 2020
14 August 2019
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Their words
The more coverage that mass shootings receive, the more scared the country becomes.
4 January 2017
Nothing matches.
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