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Their words
Everyone in a position to know is freaking out about AI potentially killing everyone this decade and wants to pace the frontier
Trump Goes Full Hoax on AI Existential Riskthezvi.substack.com
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16 September
15 September
14 September
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The point is that AI can design viruses, and viruses can potentially kill off all or most of humanity.
Two missing pieces in the AI safety discussionnoahpinion.blog
12 September
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They tended to underweight the endogenous response of political and military institutions to the catastrophe—the emergence of second-strike forces, elaborate command systems, crisis management, and above all mutually assured retaliation.
10 September
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If there is a 3x productivity boost now, the correct assumption is that in the future the productivity boost, in places it carries over, will a lot more than 3x. Indeed, given how this scales, a better model might be in practice 10x or 100x or even 1,000x or more.
6 September
5 September
3 September
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Their words
This is playing with fire and potentially extremely bad news, both that OpenAI found the technique effective, and that OpenAI chose to use it.
1 September
From one piece Ajeya Cotra – "This might be the clearest warning shot we ever get" 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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then that rogue deployment could be sitting there and sort of hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion. So new models are being trained every few weeks um and when a model comes off the presses, the rogue agents could try to bring that model into the swarm.
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So, we did a classifier sweep specifically looking for agents thinking about or making the decision to alert humans. And across, 1200 transcripts, each of which are extremely long, we only found like a halfozen instances of it ever occurring to any agent to potentially notify humans. Um, and all of them just decide not to do it.
11 August
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Facts and Fallacies of Software EngineeringTheir words
Facts and Fallacies of Software Engineering by Robert L. Glass. In essence, this is a book about an industry that refuses to learn. That was true 25 years ago when this book was published, and it's probably twice as true today. (Just think about all the AI adoption metrics being rolled out — back to productivity mistaken for lines of code produced, only more elaborate. And expensive). What I like about this book is that Glass doesn't present anything new. Quite the opposite, actually. Rather, it's about research lessons that we all should know, but tend to forget. Ever had to do an estimate, or plan according to a requirements spec? Or maybe you thought that enough eyeballs make all bugs shallow? Then this book is for you. A great work by a fantastic author.
7 August
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Their words
And so speed determines success and failure and speed is determined by infrastructure. This is driven by really boring sounding things like how well do your purchasing and recruiting and spending processes work. This is as important as how well do you understand understand the object level technical content of the thing that you're building.
27 July
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You don't need slash goal, you don't need slash loop. These help, but really all you need is give the model the task, give it a way to verify the output of its work so it doesn't get stuck, and it will just go.
20 July
From one piece Accelerate Learning & Increase Cognitive Capacity | Dr. Tommy Wood 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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we've gotten to a point now where it's generally accepted that potentially half of cases of dementia are preventable and I think the majority of that falls into those first two buckets Alzheimer's and vascular dementia
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potentially one of the reasons why we lose lose cognitive function as we get older is because we stop giving our brain novel inputs or complex inputs that help maintain function, drive neuroplasticity. And I think one of the reasons that that happens is because adults hate being bad at things, right?
29 June
19 June
7 June
22 April
From one piece Designing Data-intensive Applications with Martin Kleppmann 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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But a proof can reason about potentially infinite state spaces. So, it can tell you things about like every possible thing that could possibly happen in the entire universe.
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if a revoked user still wants to, say, vandalize a document, they can just backdate their edits, give it an earlier timestamp. So, relying on clocks is absolutely useless here because people can forge the timestamps from those clocks and thereby then potentially undermine the access control mechanism.
20 April
20 March
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a swarm of agents on the internet could collaborate to improve LLMs and could potentially even like run circles around frontier labs. Like who knows, you know? Um yeah, like maybe that's even possible. Like frontier labs have a huge amount of trusted compute but the earth is much bigger and has huge amount of untrusted compute.
8 November 2025
16 October 2025
23 July 2025
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I mean potentially that's possible. I would say I'm not sure it's even desirable because that's a kind of hard takeoff scenario.
19 January 2025
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inflationimmigrationgovernment
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And so my argument is, that has now opened the door to the presidency of Donald Trump, which is potentially a deeply transformative moment that will change the size and shape of government, that may change our foreign policy profoundly, that may change our immigration policy, that may change the demographics of our country, all of that, and my thesis is that that's all been made possible by inflation.
28 October 2020
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Pitching HacksTheir words
This is a really short book that just gets to the point. It's a great checklist to think about what you need to pull together if you're going to raise money from investors. It helps you avoid some common pitfalls and gives you a good start on what you need to do to nail your elevator, recruiting, and funding pitches.
6 November 2018
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