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Paul Christiano

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All of AI AI alignment

24 February 2018

Paul ChristianoKorrents 24 Feb 2018

From one piece Takeoff speeds 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Technologies are almost always preceded by slightly worse versions of themselves, and there is no reason for AI to be the exception.

Their words

Things are usually preceded by worse versions, even in cases where there are weak reasons to expect a discontinuous jump.

Takeoff speedssideways-view.com
korrents.com
Incredibly powerful AI will arrive into a world that is already being transformed and already alarmed, not into a world like today's.

Their words

In particular, this means that incredibly powerful AI will emerge in a world where crazy stuff is already happening (and probably everyone is already freaking out).

Takeoff speedssideways-view.com
korrents.com
Expecting a slow takeoff means expecting AI to matter more and sooner, not less; the disagreement is about what happens before superintelligence, not after.

AI alignment

Their words

The main disagreement is not about what will happen once we have a superintelligent AI, it’s about what will happen before we have a superintelligent AI.

Takeoff speedssideways-view.com

+ 1 more

korrents.com
A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives.

Their words

I currently think a slow takeoff is significantly more likely.

Takeoff speedssideways-view.com

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