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Paul Christiano

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24 February 2018

Paul ChristianoKorrents 24 Feb 2018

From one piece Takeoff speeds 6 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
The gap between chimps and humans is no evidence that a small increase in compute yields an explosion of capability, because evolution was not optimising chimps for technology.

Their words

But chimp evolution is not primarily selecting for making and using technology, for doing science, or for facilitating cultural accumulation.

Takeoff speedssideways-view.com
korrents.com
Technologies are almost always preceded by slightly worse versions of themselves, and there is no reason for AI to be the exception.

Their words

Things are usually preceded by worse versions, even in cases where there are weak reasons to expect a discontinuous jump.

Takeoff speedssideways-view.com
korrents.com
Incredibly powerful AI will arrive into a world that is already being transformed and already alarmed, not into a world like today's.

Their words

In particular, this means that incredibly powerful AI will emerge in a world where crazy stuff is already happening (and probably everyone is already freaking out).

Takeoff speedssideways-view.com

+ 3 more

korrents.com
Expecting a slow takeoff means expecting AI to matter more and sooner, not less; the disagreement is about what happens before superintelligence, not after.

AI alignment

Their words

The main disagreement is not about what will happen once we have a superintelligent AI, it’s about what will happen before we have a superintelligent AI.

Takeoff speedssideways-view.com
korrents.com
There will be a complete four-year doubling of world output before there is ever a one-year doubling.

Their words

There will be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles.

Takeoff speedssideways-view.com
korrents.com
A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives.

Their words

I currently think a slow takeoff is significantly more likely.

Takeoff speedssideways-view.com

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