Nate Silver
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16 October
15 October
13 October
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Their words
It would take a massive October surprise or a bigger-than-2016 polling error to save the Republican majority there, despite Republicans’ aggressive redistricting.
9 October
From one piece Could Minnesota spoil the blue wave? 2 beliefs · natesilver.net
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Their words
Perpetually increasing polarization means that: 1) fewer states are competitive; 2) there’s less and less ticket-splitting, so races for Congress are more predictable based on presidential voting and 3) “candidate effects,” including incumbency, are weaker, so there’s less opportunity for a candidate with strong personal qualities to overcome the partisan tide.
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Their words
There remains a very real chance — about 1 in 4 — that Republicans keep the Senate despite Democrats’ seeming momentum.
8 October
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Their words
Overall, there isn’t much evidence that female candidates face an electoral penalty, although that deserves a deeper analysis.
6 October
From one piece The Democrats’ AI primary is heating up 2 beliefs · natesilver.net
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korrents.com
Presidential candidates will almost certainly begin announcing their bids in early 2027.Their words
Those primaries might feel a long way off, but remember, candidates will almost certainly start to announce their bids in early 2027.
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Their words
But not everyone is so bullish on AI, and with the arguably alarming rate at which the models are improving, this issue is likely to become more relevant before 2028.
3 October
From one piece What if the polls are wrong again? 2 beliefs · natesilver.net
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Their words
In the 9 midterms or presidential years I’ve covered since FiveThirtyEight launched in 2008, polls have had a systematic bias against Democrats once, in 2012, a systematic bias against Republicans four times (the three Trump presidential elections + 2014), and were basically unbiased in the other four elections, including in the past two midterms.
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korrents.com
Polls may be biased in either directionTheir words
Systematic polling errors are common. Polls might be biased against Republicans again. Or against Democrats.
1 October
From one piece Why did Ohio stop being a swing state? 2 beliefs · natesilver.net
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korrents.com
Ohio has become much redder in the Trump EraTheir words
all three Big Ten states have become much redder in the Trump Era — but Ohio more so than the others.
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korrents.com
Democrats' voter-targeting efforts are plausibly more efficient and effective than Republicans' efforts under Trump.Their words
Democrats’ voter-targeting efforts are plausibly more efficient and effective than the Republican ones under Trump.
30 September
29 September
28 September
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