From one piece The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023) 8 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Now, I’ll just say that broadly speaking, I think understanding the history of ideas is incredibly valuable in pedagogy, generally speaking, right?
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For many tasks a smart person is better than a crowdTheir words
So I just want to say one thing, just to be super clear, that there are many tasks where having a smart person is better than having a crowd.
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And I guess the other thing I’d just say overall, I already mentioned it, Tim, but I’ll just emphasize it again, is that almost all the great investors I know are just incredibly intellectually curious. And they want to understand how things work and they’re willing to listen and read and learn.
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Complex adaptive systems are the best way to think about markets: hard to beat, yet periodically haywireTheir words
So yeah, I think once you have that framework in your mind — and by the way, for me, just professionally, this is, I think, the best way to think about markets specifically and why, again, markets are hard to beat, which they are, but why they periodically go haywire, which they do.
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Value investing today is simply buying something for less than it is worth, which all intelligent investing should beTheir words
I think the modern manifestation of value investing is simply buying something for less than what it’s worth, so it seems like all investing should be value investing if it’s done intelligently.
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A true expert has a predictive model that works, and experts are under pressure from two directionsTheir words
Whereas, really, a true expert has a predictive model that works. I’m increasingly skeptical about experts and I think the pressure on experts is coming from two different directions.
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Confirmation bias, seeking confirming information and dismissing the rest, is an even harder bias to circumventTheir words
And the second one I think is even more difficult, which is confirmation bias. Which is once we’ve made up our minds about something, we tend to seek information that confirms our point of view, and dismiss, discount, disavow information that does not.
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The first is overconfidence. We tend to think we understand the future better than we actually do.