Michael Mauboussin
Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management; adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School; author of More Than You Know, Think Twice, The Success Equation and The Investing Mind.
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What they believe
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People tend to think they understand the future better than they actually do
The first is overconfidence. We tend to think we understand the future better than we actually do.
tim.blogSaid 3 Mar 2023This on korrents
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Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 8 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
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People tend to think they understand the future better than they actually do
The first is overconfidence. We tend to think we understand the future better than we actually do.
The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023) Said 3 Mar 2023
Confirmation bias, seeking confirming information and dismissing the rest, is an even harder bias to circumvent
And the second one I think is even more difficult, which is confirmation bias. Which is once we’ve made up our minds about something, we tend to seek information that confirms our point of view, and dismiss, discount, disavow information that does not.
The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023) Said 3 Mar 2023
A true expert has a predictive model that works, and experts are under pressure from two directions
Whereas, really, a true expert has a predictive model that works. I’m increasingly skeptical about experts and I think the pressure on experts is coming from two different directions.
The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023) Said 3 Mar 2023
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Value investing today is simply buying something for less than it is worth, which all intelligent investing should be
I think the modern manifestation of value investing is simply buying something for less than what it’s worth, so it seems like all investing should be value investing if it’s done intelligently.
The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023) Said 3 Mar 2023
Complex adaptive systems are the best way to think about markets: hard to beat, yet periodically haywire
So yeah, I think once you have that framework in your mind — and by the way, for me, just professionally, this is, I think, the best way to think about markets specifically and why, again, markets are hard to beat, which they are, but why they periodically go haywire, which they do.
The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023) Said 3 Mar 2023
Almost all great investors are intensely intellectually curious
And I guess the other thing I’d just say overall, I already mentioned it, Tim, but I’ll just emphasize it again, is that almost all the great investors I know are just incredibly intellectually curious. And they want to understand how things work and they’re willing to listen and read and learn.
The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023) Said 3 Mar 2023
For many tasks a smart person is better than a crowd
So I just want to say one thing, just to be super clear, that there are many tasks where having a smart person is better than having a crowd.
The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023) Said 3 Mar 2023
Understanding the history of ideas is incredibly valuable in teaching
Now, I’ll just say that broadly speaking, I think understanding the history of ideas is incredibly valuable in pedagogy, generally speaking, right?
The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023) Said 3 Mar 2023
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Where they publish
Site michaelmauboussin.com Personal site with his books and an archive of his writing
Bio, books and an indexed archive of his research reports, articles, talks and interviews from 1995 on, each linked to the original.
Link verified 3 Oct 2026.
x.com @mjmauboussin Posts on decisions, books and investing
Short posts on decision making, investing, complex adaptive systems, skill and luck, and the books he is reading.
Link verified 3 Oct 2026.
LinkedIn LinkedIn Professional profile
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