Kevin Erdmann

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12 October

Kevin ErdmannKorrents 12 Oct

From one piece Erdmann Housing Tracker 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Potato neighborhoods, which are purpose-built, dense, low-income housing, must be purpose-built rather than arriving through filtering.

housing

Their words

Potato neighborhoods are universally banned. Neighborhoods don't filter into being potato neighborhoods. They must be purpose-built.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
The affordability problem is entirely a land value problem and cannot be fixed by making worse structures.

Their words

But, the affordability problem is entirely a land value problem. We can't fix it by making worse structures.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
The belief in quality and low cost are inherently at odds, and affordability requires legal protections that prevent local governments from mandating quality beyond basic safety and health.

Their words

I argue that the belief in quality and low cost are actually very inherently at odds by their very nature, and that affordability has to come with legal protections that disallow local governments from regulating in a way that mandates quality beyond what is necessary for basic safety and health.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com

29 September

Kevin ErdmannKorrents 29 Sept

From one piece Erdmann Housing Tracker 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Market-rate housing of any type is the most effective way to eliminate land scarcity premiums.

housing

Their words

The most effective way to get rid of the scarcity premium is market rate housing of any type that developers want to build.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
The poorest homes in a city cannot become affordable unless land scarcity premiums are lost across the entire market.

Their words

The poorest homes in each city literally cannot become affordable unless land all across the market loses the same scarcity premium.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
Downward filtering is a prerequisite for any housing affordability strategy.

housing

Their words

I would add that downward filtering is a prerequisite to any affordability strategy, and it can't really happen without adequate market rate housing.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com

28 September

Kevin ErdmannKorrents 28 Sept

From one piece Erdmann Housing Tracker 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
The Federal Reserve's belief in a housing oversupply in 2008 contributed to the severity of the economic crisis.

interest rateshousing

Their words

There was a uniform benchmarking to crisis, and the hallucination about housing oversupply was the master key that opened the door for it.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
The current housing crisis and the difficulty of achieving Strong Towns' goals are results of the 2008 financial collapse and subsequent policy choices.

housing

Their words

The collapse in finance and development markets that now make Strong Towns' goals hard to achieve wouldn't have happened.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
When supply is adequate, building more high-tier homes leads to downward filtering where rents decline in low-tier homes.

Their words

Basically, when you build more high tier homes, rents decline in low tier homes.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com

15 September

Kevin ErdmannKorrents 15 Sept

From one piece Erdmann Housing Tracker 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Millions of homes in rural areas will become uninhabitable while millions of new homes are required in cities.

Their words

Millions of homes in those areas will become uninhabitable while millions of new homes are required in cities.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
The depopulation of rural areas is going to spread and deepen in the coming decades.

Their words

In the coming decades, the depopulation of rural areas, which is already apparent in some regions, is going to spread and deepen.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
Zero population growth would probably be associated with homebuilding rates in the US near the current level.

Their words

And, in fact, zero population growth would probably be associated with homebuilding rates in the US near the current level, because our building since 2008 has been so lacking.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com

11 September

Kevin ErdmannKorrents 11 Sept

From one piece Erdmann Housing Tracker 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Growth in Arizona and Florida will eventually rise back above 2% permanently.

housing

Their words

I think growth will rise back up above 2%, permanently in Arizona and Florida, but under current mortgage standards, it will have to involve growth in rental housing.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
Families tend to have inelastic demand for trading down to lower-quality housing.

housing

Their words

Families tend to have relatively unitary demand elasticity for trading up. (They will scale housing expenses with their income.) But, they tend to have very inelastic demand for trading down.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
The near doubling of the American housing price/income ratio is caused by a supply shortage.

disciplineAmericahousing

Their words

The short version is that the near doubling (on average) of the price/income ratio of American housing is from a supply shortage. And, in fact, that's the only feasible cause of such a persistent price anomaly.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com

9 September

Kevin ErdmannKorrents 9 Sept

From one piece Erdmann Housing Tracker 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Home prices tend to moderate when investor market share rises and inflate when investor market share declines.

investing

Their words

In terms of home prices, prices always and everywhere tend to moderate when investor (renter) market share rises and inflate when investor (renter) market share declines.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
If annual new single-family home completions rise from 1 million to 1.5 million over the next 5 or 10 years, it will likely be related to an extra half million renter households each year.

Their words

If annual new single-family home completions rise from 1 million to 1.5 million over the next 5 or 10 years, it will likely be related to an extra half million renter households each year.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com
korrents.com
Investors have played a calming role by softening price volatility resulting from homeowner demand.

investing

Their words

We find that investors have played a calming role across the board, softening the price volatility that has resulted from the whipsawing demand from homeowners.

Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com

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