Kevin Erdmann
American housing economist; writes the Erdmann Housing Tracker newsletter on US housing supply, rents and prices. Author of Shut Out (2019) and Building from the Ground Up (2023), which argue a housing shortage caused the 2008 crisis; former visiting fellow at the Mercatus Center.
Kevin Erdmann did not write this page. ppll compiled it from their own words, each linked to the source. Is this you? · Report a mistake
What they believe
-
The belief in quality and low cost are inherently at odds, and affordability requires legal protections that prevent local governments from mandating quality beyond basic safety and health.
I argue that the belief in quality and low cost are actually very inherently at odds by their very nature, and that affordability has to come with legal protections that disallow local governments from regulating in a way that mandates quality beyond what is necessary for basic safety and health.
kevinerdmann.substack.comSaid 12 Oct 2026This on korrents
-
Downward filtering is a prerequisite for any housing affordability strategy.
I would add that downward filtering is a prerequisite to any affordability strategy, and it can't really happen without adequate market rate housing.
kevinerdmann.substack.comSaid 29 Sept 2026This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 18 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
The belief in quality and low cost are inherently at odds, and affordability requires legal protections that prevent local governments from mandating quality beyond basic safety and health.
I argue that the belief in quality and low cost are actually very inherently at odds by their very nature, and that affordability has to come with legal protections that disallow local governments from regulating in a way that mandates quality beyond what is necessary for basic safety and health.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 12 Oct 2026
The affordability problem is entirely a land value problem and cannot be fixed by making worse structures.
But, the affordability problem is entirely a land value problem. We can't fix it by making worse structures.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 12 Oct 2026
Potato neighborhoods, which are purpose-built, dense, low-income housing, must be purpose-built rather than arriving through filtering.
Potato neighborhoods are universally banned. Neighborhoods don't filter into being potato neighborhoods. They must be purpose-built.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 12 Oct 2026
Show 15 more
Downward filtering is a prerequisite for any housing affordability strategy.
I would add that downward filtering is a prerequisite to any affordability strategy, and it can't really happen without adequate market rate housing.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 29 Sept 2026
The poorest homes in a city cannot become affordable unless land scarcity premiums are lost across the entire market.
The poorest homes in each city literally cannot become affordable unless land all across the market loses the same scarcity premium.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 29 Sept 2026
Market-rate housing of any type is the most effective way to eliminate land scarcity premiums.
The most effective way to get rid of the scarcity premium is market rate housing of any type that developers want to build.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 29 Sept 2026
When supply is adequate, building more high-tier homes leads to downward filtering where rents decline in low-tier homes.
Basically, when you build more high tier homes, rents decline in low tier homes.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 28 Sept 2026
The current housing crisis and the difficulty of achieving Strong Towns' goals are results of the 2008 financial collapse and subsequent policy choices.
The collapse in finance and development markets that now make Strong Towns' goals hard to achieve wouldn't have happened.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 28 Sept 2026
The Federal Reserve's belief in a housing oversupply in 2008 contributed to the severity of the economic crisis.
There was a uniform benchmarking to crisis, and the hallucination about housing oversupply was the master key that opened the door for it.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 28 Sept 2026
Zero population growth would probably be associated with homebuilding rates in the US near the current level.
And, in fact, zero population growth would probably be associated with homebuilding rates in the US near the current level, because our building since 2008 has been so lacking.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 15 Sept 2026
The depopulation of rural areas is going to spread and deepen in the coming decades.
In the coming decades, the depopulation of rural areas, which is already apparent in some regions, is going to spread and deepen.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 15 Sept 2026
Millions of homes in rural areas will become uninhabitable while millions of new homes are required in cities.
Millions of homes in those areas will become uninhabitable while millions of new homes are required in cities.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 15 Sept 2026
The near doubling of the American housing price/income ratio is caused by a supply shortage.
The short version is that the near doubling (on average) of the price/income ratio of American housing is from a supply shortage. And, in fact, that's the only feasible cause of such a persistent price anomaly.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 11 Sept 2026
Families tend to have inelastic demand for trading down to lower-quality housing.
Families tend to have relatively unitary demand elasticity for trading up. (They will scale housing expenses with their income.) But, they tend to have very inelastic demand for trading down.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 11 Sept 2026
Growth in Arizona and Florida will eventually rise back above 2% permanently.
I think growth will rise back up above 2%, permanently in Arizona and Florida, but under current mortgage standards, it will have to involve growth in rental housing.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 11 Sept 2026
Investors have played a calming role by softening price volatility resulting from homeowner demand.
We find that investors have played a calming role across the board, softening the price volatility that has resulted from the whipsawing demand from homeowners.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 9 Sept 2026
If annual new single-family home completions rise from 1 million to 1.5 million over the next 5 or 10 years, it will likely be related to an extra half million renter households each year.
If annual new single-family home completions rise from 1 million to 1.5 million over the next 5 or 10 years, it will likely be related to an extra half million renter households each year.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 9 Sept 2026
Home prices tend to moderate when investor market share rises and inflate when investor market share declines.
In terms of home prices, prices always and everywhere tend to moderate when investor (renter) market share rises and inflate when investor (renter) market share declines.
Erdmann Housing Tracker Said 9 Sept 2026
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Where they publish
Blog Idiosyncratic Whisk His earlier blog on housing and monetary policy, last posted in 2023
Link verified 24 Oct 2026.
Newsletter Erdmann Housing Tracker Data-heavy posts on the US housing shortage, filtering, rents and home prices by metro
Open kevinerdmann.substack.com
Link verified 24 Oct 2026.
About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter, especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked article and a belief on korrents.com are left in their original language.