Dylan Patel

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13 March

Dylan PatelKorrents 13 Mar

From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Evacuating TSMC's engineers and destroying its fabs would leave China with the strongest semiconductor supply chain in the world.

China

Their words

Um, just shipping out all the engineers and blowing up the fabs means China has a stronger semiconductor supply chain than the rest of the world, right?

youtube.com
korrents.com
Huawei, if it had access to TSMC, would arguably be a better chip company than Nvidia.

China

Their words

And Huawei has a bigger pool in China. It's very arguable that Huawei, if they had TSMC, would be better than Nvidia.

youtube.com
korrents.com
As labs sell finished white-collar work rather than reasoning traces, Chinese models will lose the ability to distil their way to parity.

AI and jobsChinaAmerica

Their words

As we move from, you know, hey, [clears throat] these companies are selling tokens where they provide the entire uh reasoning chain and all that to uh selling automated, you know, white collar work, right? Automated software engineer, send them the request, they give you the result back and there's a bunch of thinking on the back end that they don't show you. The ability to distill out of American models into Chinese models will be harder.

youtube.com

+ 1 more

korrents.com
China will have a working EUV machine long before it can build them in quantity, because production hell takes years after the lab result.

China

Their words

I think they'll have working tools. I don't think that they'll be able to manufacture a bunch yet, right? You know, there's they're sort of having it work and then there's production hell, right?

youtube.com

3 February 2025

Dylan PatelKorrents 3 Feb 2025

From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
When writing software becomes cheap, platform SaaS dies: companies stop buying Salesforce and start building their own business logic, as China already does.

SaaSChina

Their words

But what happens when every company can just invent their own business logic really cheaply and quickly? You stop using platform SaaS, you start building custom tailored solutions, you change them really quickly.

youtube.com
korrents.com
The largest hole in America's GPU export controls was never physical smuggling but renting: ByteDance runs over 500,000 GPUs it does not own.

ChinaAmerica

Their words

One is ByteDance, arguably is the largest smuggler of GPUs for China. China's not supposed to have GPUs. ByteDance has over 500,000 GPUs. Why? Because they're all rented from companies around the world.

youtube.com
korrents.com
Export controls slowed China at the leading edge and accelerated it everywhere else, because being locked out taught China to in-source the trailing edge.

China

Their words

So there is an angle of, the US' actions, from the angle of the expert controls, have been so inflammatory at slowing down China's progress on the leading edge that they've turned around and have accelerated their progress elsewhere because they know that this is so important.

youtube.com

+ 2 more

korrents.com
The only thing stopping China from building the largest data centre in the world is access to chips; the power and the industrial capacity are already there.

data centersChina

Their words

China, if they wanted to build the largest data center in the world, if they had access to the chips, could. So it's just a question of when, not if.

youtube.com
korrents.com
If AI does not transform the economy within the next five to ten years, the export controls will have guaranteed that China wins the long run.

China

Their words

if you believe we're in this sort of stage of economic growth and change that we've been in for the last 20 years, the export controls are absolutely guaranteeing that China will win long-term.

youtube.com

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