From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
TSMC will never throw Apple off its leading node; Apple will simply stop mattering enough for TSMC to cater to it.Their words
and so I don't think TSMC would kick out Apple. I think Apple will become a smaller and smaller and smaller percentage of TSMC's revenue and therefore be less relevant for TSMC to cater to their demands.
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Their words
Um DRAM gets released goes to AI chips who are willing to do longer term contracts, willing to pay higher margins, etc., etc. because at the end of the day, the margin that they extract is much larger from the end user or whatever. Um, and so this this this probably leads to like people hating AI even more, right?
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korrents.com
TSMC would rather give wafers to a slow, stable CPU business than to its fastest-growing AI customer.Their words
TSMC is much more excited to give allocation to Graviton than they are to tranium because they view CPU business as more stable long-term growth right and as a company that is conservative and doesn't want to ride cycles of growth too hard you actually want to allocate to the uh the market that is more stable and lower growth rate first before you allocate all the incremental capacity to the fast growth rate market.
+ 2 more
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Their words
Um I think at least this year we're going to see margins for the model vendors go up a lot, right? Because they're so capacity constrained, they have to demand destroy demand, right? there is there's no way they can continue anthropic can continue at the current pace without destroying demand.
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Their words
if improvement stopped you know here the value of an H100 is now predicated on the value that GPD 5.4 four can get out of it instead of the value that GP4 can get out of it and the margins and all that stuff that these labs are doing and they're in a competitive environment so their margins can't go to infinity. Um so you sort of have this like dynamic that is quite interesting in that an H100 is worth more today than it was 3 years ago.