From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 6 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So, I think there is a world where it is concentrated, in which case it's going to be really hard to index AGI. There is another world where it is not It's electricity, then like basically every company has access to AGI. So, you just buy you use buy the index. So, like, you know, Nigeria just needs to buy the index.
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Their words
because a lot with electricity, a lot of the downstream benefits actually came to like the users of the electricity rather than the rather than the actual entity producing the electricity. On the other hand, with social media, it was the opposite case, right? Social media, you know, it was everywhere. Everybody uses social media, but the rents went to the platform.
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Their words
I think the biggest lack of resources that we have allocated in the economic profession is thinking about middle-income developing countries in the in the age of AI.
+ 3 more
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Their words
So, what you need is that basically demand to be bounded, like a hard bound, not even like a soft sort of like diminishing sensitivity. You need for them to eventually say, "I've had enough. I don't want to spend any more money." And for that money to not enter as investment.
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Their words
we don't have any data. I've been kind of saying we need a Manhattan Project for data. We don't have data on basically consumer demand elasticities. We don't know what they are.
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Their words
rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.