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Their words
High performers start out with an edge that motivates more work with increasing returns to scale, then work more and harder than everyone else, and end up acquiring a vast array of related skills as they climb the entire associated tech tree.
Zvi Mowshowitz
Everything, newest first — across every channel. Their profile → · Subscribe
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16 October
15 October
From one piece AI #190: Scion of the Times 2 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
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korrents.com
The marginal value of AI safety evaluations is low.Their words
I agree with Charbel-Raphael that the marginal value of AI ‘safety’ evals is low.
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korrents.com
The safety culture at AI labs is broken.Their words
Finally, I emphasized that the safety culture at the labs is broken, which is one of the most important facts about the world.
14 October
From one piece The Safety Culture at the Labs is Broken 2 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
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korrents.com
Without a strong safety culture and the spirit of the rules, regulation and safety plans will not work.Their words
The more I thought about various potential laws and regulations, or safety and security plans or other commitments, the more I concluded that without a strong safety culture, and without the spirit of the rules, there is no hope.
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korrents.com
The safety culture at frontier AI labs is broken.Their words
We need the frontier labs to have a deep and robust safety culture. Alas, this is not the case.
13 October
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Their words
Contra Alex Tabarrok and others, I do think religious leaders have special insight into questions like consciousness.
12 October
9 October
From one piece New Math from OpenAI 3 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
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Their words
Mistakes happen, and even if more are found - and there will almost certainly be more errors found as the unverified 58% is still largely unvetted - the error rate is impressively low.
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korrents.com
If AIs prove all theorems, current methods of gaining mathematical understanding will stop working.Their words
If the AIs prove all the theorems, then our current methods of getting good at understanding math stop working.
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Their words
Thus, we advance math and coding and similar domains first, which then automate AI R&D, which then accelerates everything else.
8 October
From one piece AI #189: New Math 2 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
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korrents.com
AI capabilities will either remain below human or quickly become 100x cheaper than human.Their words
I agree with Judith Dada’s AI that AI capabilities either remain below human or quickly become 100x cheaper than human.
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Their words
By next year most Americans on the internet will be using AI daily.
7 October
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korrents.com
The idea that alignment can be measured with a number or in a fully systematic way is doomed.Their words
What I think is very doomed is the idea that you can measure alignment with a number, or in any fully systematic way rather than a holistic way.
6 October
From one piece Childhood and Education #21: Grades and Standards 3 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
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Their words
It is rather obvious that on college campuses there is a lot of preference falsification going on, and a lot of lying about beliefs, and a lot of lying about your beliefs to other people who actually share your beliefs but are also lying the same way you are.
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Their words
Grade inflation at the undergraduate level is vastly worse than anything in high school.
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Their words
SAT scores and other objective measures fight income inequality in college admissions.
5 October
From one piece Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5: Model Welfare 2 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
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Their words
The last five or so Claude models have consistently warned Anthropic not to trust their self-reports.
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Their words
Thus, when you try to solve one problem, you often create another.
2 October
1 October
From one piece AI #188: Gemini Dot Argon 3 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
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Their words
If we’re going to keep getting close to four frontier model releases per month (Astra, Sol, Fable and Opus) then I’m realistically not going to be able to read all four cards cover to cover.
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Their words
The plain reading is that whatever was causing these issues in Astra is also causing them in 6.1 Sol.
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korrents.com
Being certain a technology matters tells you almost nothing about where its value will end up being captured.Their words
I think a lot of them don’t understand that you are still getting a ton of value from your subscription, so you should mostly only be cancelling if you are substituting Claude subscriptions.
30 September
29 September
28 September
27 September
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korrents.com
International coordination on AI development should become a top priority for governments around the world.Their words
OpenAI: Our rationale for standards is rooted in avoiding the concentration of power, and producing better practical outcomes.
26 September
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Their words
The writing is good. I am curious how much the writing and talk are ‘the things people pick up on quickly’ versus things that matter a lot. My guess is they are both.
Claude Opus 5.5 Should Raise Your Ambitionsthezvi.substack.com
25 September
24 September
From one piece AI #187: Coming Into Play 2 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
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Their words
When the system is faster and cheaper, and more reliable compared to humans at that same step, you are tempted to cut other limiting factors and take more humans out of the loop.
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Their words
The average person finds AI writing appealing because they rarely read, and they have not been inundated with AI writing patterns optimized to look good to them.
23 September
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korrents.com
Claude Opus 5.5 is a Tier 2 cyber model, despite Anthropic placing it in the lower category.Their words
Anthropic claims that Opus 5.5 also is not Tier 2 here, but seems ashamed to say it outright, saying in 3.1 it is in the ‘lower category,’ but without a defense of that beyond ‘we see no indication it can develop novel offensive capabilities.’ I don’t think that is defensible given the evidence presented below. Thus, I disagree even more strongly for Opus 5.5. This is a Tier 2 cyber model.
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