Zeke Hausfather
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4 November
3 November
2 November
28 October
26 October
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Their words
There is a real risk that off-grid gas generators become locked in over long periods of time while the rest of the electricity generation system decarbonizes.
24 October
21 October
19 October
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korrents.com
There is a consilience of evidence that leads to the conclusion that current warming acceleration is likely real.Their words
But as I’ve noted, there is a consilience of evidence that leads us to conclude that this time acceleration is likely real, even if it remains just short of statistically significant in surface temperature records.
15 October
12 October
- Bluesky
- NewsletterThe strongest El Niño in a thousand years?
- Bluesky
10 October
6 October
5 October
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Their words
Many countries have already seen their power sector emissions decline, the world as a whole appears to now be on the cusp of absolute declines in electricity sector emissions.
3 October
2 October
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22 September
From one piece My new NYT op-ed on climate change risk 2 beliefs · theclimatebrink.com
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The global land (where, its worth noting, we all happen to live) is warming around 50% faster than the world as a whole, and has already passed 2C.
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Their words
By 2150 we have a 77% chance of being above 3C, a ~30% chance of being above 4C, and a 6% of more than 5C warming.
28 August
From one piece What we can and cannot say about climate change and the Nepal disaster 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But the existence of old events tells us nothing about whether the odds are changing, and heat waves happened in 1900 too (just less frequently).
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korrents.com
What drives glacial hazard risk is the rate of change in ice and permafrost, not the total amount of ice present.Their words
Rather, what drives risks is how fast the ice and the frozen ground beneath the ice are changing.
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Their words
A rapidly warming climate and retreating glaciers are increasing risks of these sorts of events in the region, whether or not we can ultimately attribute this particular event.
5 August
From one piece The real energy use of agentic AI 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Unlike aviation, this is an end-use we already know how to decarbonize.
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Which is why the lever that actually matters most is the carbon intensity of the electricity.
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This is the Jevons paradox in action: making compute cheaper per token in turn tends to lead to greater levels of AI use.
30 July
From one piece Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
it tells you that a single warm year, or even two, cannot distinguish between "very rapid acceleration driven by aerosols and high sensitivity" and "the trend and more modest acceleration plus a very strong El Niño."
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026theclimatebrink.com
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Their words
I'd personally give a central estimate closer to 3.5C than Hansen's ~4.5C
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026theclimatebrink.com
22 July
From one piece Hot days, cold thermometers 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Third, raw daily data is the wrong tool for this question. Time of observation changes and the 1980s switch to MMTS sensors both suppress modern hot day counts relative to the past, and the raw and homogenized series diverge almost exactly when the instrument transition happened.
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korrents.com
The US warming trend since 1970 is consistent across raw, adjusted, satellite, and surface temperature datasetsTheir words
The overall US warming trend (around 0.5F per decade since 1970 in max, min, and mean temperatures) is robust in every dataset, raw or adjusted, satellite or surface.
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Their words
A record set during an ecological disaster in one part of the country is not evidence that the whole country, much less the planet, was hotter.
17 July
From one piece Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
warmer air is exponentially "thirstier" (saturation vapor pressure rises ~7% per degree), so it pulls moisture out of live vegetation and dead fuels alike, priming the landscape to burn.
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korrents.com
Local fuel treatments protect communities but cannot reduce total wildfire area across the remote borealTheir words
Fuel management is valuable around communities, but is essentially useless across the remote boreal.
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korrents.com
Fuel buildup from forest mismanagement cannot occur in forests that were never actively managedTheir words
You cannot have a fuel-buildup from forest mismanagement in a forest you were never managing.
13 July
From one piece The Strongest El Niño Ever 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.Their words
Model agreement this strong is unusual, though I'd note that agreement is not the same thing as skill as I discuss later on.
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Their words
global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event's warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin.
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korrents.com
El Niño events typically peak near the end of the calendar year, between November and January.Their words
El Niño almost always peaks near the end of the calendar year - typically between November and January, occasionally as early as October
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