Zeke Hausfather

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28 August

Zeke HausfatherKorrents 28 Aug

From one piece What we can and cannot say about climate change and the Nepal disaster 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
The historical occurrence of extreme natural events does not by itself show whether their odds have changed over time.

Their words

But the existence of old events tells us nothing about whether the odds are changing, and heat waves happened in 1900 too (just less frequently).

theclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
What drives glacial hazard risk is the rate of change in ice and permafrost, not the total amount of ice present.

Their words

Rather, what drives risks is how fast the ice and the frozen ground beneath the ice are changing.

theclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
A warming climate and retreating glaciers are raising the risk of Himalayan ice-and-rock collapses regardless of whether any single event can be attributed to it.

Their words

A rapidly warming climate and retreating glaciers are increasing risks of these sorts of events in the region, whether or not we can ultimately attribute this particular event.

theclimatebrink.com

5 August

Zeke HausfatherKorrents 5 Aug

From one piece The real energy use of agentic AI 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
AI's energy use is an easier end-use to decarbonize than aviation.

energy

Their words

Unlike aviation, this is an end-use we already know how to decarbonize.

The real energy use of agentic AItheclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
The carbon intensity of the electricity grid, not compute efficiency, is the lever that matters most for AI's climate impact.

energy

Their words

Which is why the lever that actually matters most is the carbon intensity of the electricity.

The real energy use of agentic AItheclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
Making AI compute cheaper per token drives enough extra usage that total AI energy consumption rises rather than falls (a Jevons paradox effect).

energy

Their words

This is the Jevons paradox in action: making compute cheaper per token in turn tends to lead to greater levels of AI use.

The real energy use of agentic AItheclimatebrink.com

30 July

Zeke HausfatherKorrents 30 Jul

From one piece Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
One or two record-warm years cannot distinguish rapid aerosol-driven acceleration in warming from a strong El Niño riding on the existing trend

Their words

it tells you that a single warm year, or even two, cannot distinguish between "very rapid acceleration driven by aerosols and high sensitivity" and "the trend and more modest acceleration plus a very strong El Niño."

Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026theclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is closer to 3.5°C than 4.5°C

Their words

I'd personally give a central estimate closer to 3.5C than Hansen's ~4.5C

Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026theclimatebrink.com

22 July

Zeke HausfatherKorrents 22 Jul

From one piece Hot days, cold thermometers 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Raw, unhomogenized daily temperature records understate modern extreme heat because of historical instrument and observation-time changes

Their words

Third, raw daily data is the wrong tool for this question. Time of observation changes and the 1980s switch to MMTS sensors both suppress modern hot day counts relative to the past, and the raw and homogenized series diverge almost exactly when the instrument transition happened.

Hot days, cold thermometerstheclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
The US warming trend since 1970 is consistent across raw, adjusted, satellite, and surface temperature datasets

Their words

The overall US warming trend (around 0.5F per decade since 1970 in max, min, and mean temperatures) is robust in every dataset, raw or adjusted, satellite or surface.

Hot days, cold thermometerstheclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
A regional climate extreme set during an ecological disaster is not evidence that the whole country or planet was hotter

Their words

A record set during an ecological disaster in one part of the country is not evidence that the whole country, much less the planet, was hotter.

Hot days, cold thermometerstheclimatebrink.com

17 July

Zeke HausfatherKorrents 17 Jul

From one piece Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Warmer air dries out vegetation and dead fuel, priming landscapes to burn more easily

Their words

warmer air is exponentially "thirstier" (saturation vapor pressure rises ~7% per degree), so it pulls moisture out of live vegetation and dead fuels alike, priming the landscape to burn.

theclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
Local fuel treatments protect communities but cannot reduce total wildfire area across the remote boreal

Their words

Fuel management is valuable around communities, but is essentially useless across the remote boreal.

theclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
Fuel buildup from forest mismanagement cannot occur in forests that were never actively managed

Their words

You cannot have a fuel-buildup from forest mismanagement in a forest you were never managing.

theclimatebrink.com

13 July

Zeke HausfatherKorrents 13 Jul

From one piece The Strongest El Niño Ever 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.

Their words

Model agreement this strong is unusual, though I'd note that agreement is not the same thing as skill as I discuss later on.

The Strongest El Niño Evertheclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
A strong El Niño's peak warming effect on global surface temperature shows up three to five months later, landing in the following year.

Their words

global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event's warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin.

The Strongest El Niño Evertheclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
El Niño events typically peak near the end of the calendar year, between November and January.

Their words

El Niño almost always peaks near the end of the calendar year - typically between November and January, occasionally as early as October

The Strongest El Niño Evertheclimatebrink.com

9 July

Zeke HausfatherKorrents 9 Jul

From one piece What drove the early 20th century warming? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there

korrents.com
Since 1970, greenhouse gases explain essentially all observed global warming, with natural forcings and internal variability playing a negligible role.

Their words

since 1970, natural forcings have been roughly flat, internal variability averages out over the longer period, and greenhouse gases explain essentially all of the observed warming.

What drove the early 20th century warming?theclimatebrink.com
korrents.com
Cutting sulfur air pollution is now unmasking greenhouse-gas warming that aerosols had been offsetting.

Their words

As air quality regulations cut sulfur emissions, warming from greenhouse gases is being unmasked.

What drove the early 20th century warming?theclimatebrink.com

9 June

Zeke HausfatherNewsletter 9 Jun

Plateauing CO2 emissions have slowed atmospheric growth
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