Tyler Cowen
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14 October
12 October
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Their words
Second, Bob is the greatest commentator on other people’s work of all time.
11 October
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Her works are not just great cookbooks, they are among the best books period.
30 September
28 September
From one piece Bundesrepublik Deutschland 3 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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So many policy mistakes have been made. So much leadership lost in the areas mentioned above. So much pessimism, sadly a lot of it seems to be justified.
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By the 1980s, living standards had caught up to the United States, with the provision of public goods sometimes superior. The country was fully democratic, pro-Western, and largely pro-American. Their rail system and postal service were amongst the best ever created.
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At times we forget what an amazing wonder the Bundesrepublik Deutschland was. At the end of the World War II, Germany was one of the sickest and cruelest human societies in history, ever. Not too many years later, it was one of the best and most successful societies ever.
26 September
From one piece A doomsday scenario for American AI 2 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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In my view, successful societies accept challenges and meet them. Solving problems, bit by bit, is the best way to ensure that we have the capabilities to meet big and truly existential risks, should those risks come along.
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Many people panicked about the possibility of strong AI models killing us all. That fear was not based on peer-reviewed scientific research showing a high chance of doom, nor was doom indicated in any market prices of the time, including measures of risk.
25 September
From one piece Armenia notes 2 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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Armenia is not dirt cheap, but it is much cheaper than most of Europe and so can be considered a bargain in relative terms.
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You could say the country has maintained the (few) strengths of the former Soviet Union, and is arguably the only place that has.
23 September
22 September
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The policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.
Banning self-recursive improvement in AI models?marginalrevolution.com
16 September
From one piece When discussing AI policy, start with China 3 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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We need much more effort in this direction, and I hope this subfield rises in status rapidly.
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If you are reading proposals or for that matter tweets for AI regulation, and the writer does not deal with these China issues in a forthright and very specific manner, you should be very suspicious indeed.
When discussing AI policy, start with Chinamarginalrevolution.com
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korrents.com
China declined U.S. nuclear-talk proposals in 2023 and broke off meaningful arms control talks.Their words
During the 2023 U.S.-China nuclear talks, America proposed missile-launch notifications, a nuclear crisis hotline, and processes to limit the use of outer space for military conflict. China declined all of those. Blame the U.S. if you wish (do we always keep our word?), but that is what happened. China also broke off meaningful arms control talks.
When discussing AI policy, start with Chinamarginalrevolution.com
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korrents.com
AI policy discussions should start with China rather than treating it as an afterthought.Their words
Whatever your ideas for regulating AI, I say start with China. Do not put China as an afterthought at the end of your proposal, mentioned in a vague wish that something good ought to happen and that maybe the future of humanity can be secured.
When discussing AI policy, start with Chinamarginalrevolution.com
14 September
From one piece Does AI assistance enhance or erode expertise? 2 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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RCTs somehow have the odd disadvantage of requiring too many things to be held constant, and so they can miss the benefits of longer-term adjustments.
Does AI assistance enhance or erode expertise?marginalrevolution.com
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korrents.com
Over time the allocation of humans to tasks will evolve so that more humans become more productive, not less.Their words
Do note that over time the allocation of humans to tasks will evolve so that more of the humans become more productive, not less.
Does AI assistance enhance or erode expertise?marginalrevolution.com
13 September
From one piece A simple model of AI-aided economic growth 3 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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In this model, if someone or something could “commandeer” the Intelligence sector, their power over society would be much more limited than it might appear at first. The world does not change that much at first, because the necessary complements are lacking.
A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com
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Now recently the U.S. economy has experienced a huge positive shock to its Intelligence, with more to come. The core prediction is that this increases marginal returns, employment, and real wages in the Polanyi knowledge sector.
A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com
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In the model, intelligence and Polanyi knowledge combine to produce output. Substitutability is fairly limited. For instance, if you have problems of norms in your office, a mere dose of AI-drenched technocratic knowledge does not usually solve those problems. Sometimes it even can make those problems worse, by empowering rent-seekers further. Intelligence and Polanyi knowledge are not quite Leontief complements, but they are mostly complements.
A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com
12 September
From one piece The mathematicians rebel against AI 2 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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korrents.com
Funding for mathematics and interest in the topic are expected to rise considerably, at least in the medium term.Their words
I expect the funding for mathematics, and the interest in the topic, to rise considerably, at least in the medium term.
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I expect the benefits to economic science from AI will be enormous, even if current practitioners cannot foresee most of those benefits today.
10 September
From one piece My very interesting Conversation with Jared Diamond 2 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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Thus, Muhammad is one of the three or four most consequential leaders ever.
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It still seems in expected value terms, Christ made an enormous difference.
9 September
From one piece Reasons to go to college 2 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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I do think going to college makes less sense, at the margin, than it did say seven or eight years ago
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while the money premium from college is falling, the friends and marriage premium from college is going up and probably will rise further still.
6 September
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korrents.com
Cyber insurance prices can be expected to rise somewhat, though why they have kept falling is far from obvious.Their words
I am happy to admit that the answers here are far from obvious, and that I am myself expecting prices to rise somewhat.
2 September
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I do not see AI as driving these changes, but an interesting result nonetheless
1 September
From one piece The Hugging Face hack 2 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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Yet each time, we drastically overreacted, letting ourselves get swept up in a climate of fear after one emotionally vivid incident
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When it comes to the cybersecurity risks from advanced AI, very likely they will not come close to being as bad as either Covid or global warming.
31 August
From one piece Anthropomorphizing AI? 2 beliefs · marginalrevolution.com
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Though be very, very careful when speaking with others, whether it be the less informed public or the more informed insiders who often come down with AI psychosis.
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korrents.com
AI sentience is a category error, and the chances of AIs being sentient are vanishingly small.Their words
I am very much opposed to the view that the AIs are sentient, or might be sentient. I view that as a category error , and the chances of it being true are vanishingly small.
19 August
12 August
8 August
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Wireheads: An Unnatural History of Technology in the BrainTheir words
An excellent book, substantive on every page, and it will make you want to read some of the works he cites.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
From the Front Line, Stalingrad-Treblinka-Berlin 1941-1945Their words
Self-recommending, the best third of this volume is just stunningly good.
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Let Us Believe in the Beginning of the Cold SeasonTheir words
I usually do not enjoy poetry in translation, but this is so fiery and full of passion that I am happy to recommend it.
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Mixed onrcmnd.app
NadjaTheir words
It is short, and fun enough to read.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Servus: How Slavery Made the Roman EmpireTheir words
A very good and aggressively readable book about how terrible slavery was in the Roman Empire.
5 August
22 July
15 July
8 July
1 July
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Likedrcmnd.app
So You Want to Own Greenland?Their words
A useful and dispassionate overview of the relevant history and issues.
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This book meets her usual high standards.
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Mixed onrcmnd.app
The Shortest History of IrelandTheir words
From a useful series, even if some of the claims are wrong and the judgments intemperate.
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An engaging book about the beauties of stonemasonry, with case studies of Venice, Angkor Wat, Lalibela, Zimbabwe and other locales.
24 June
22 June
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Allison Schrager is very good, including her new book Worth the Risk: The Seven Myths that Keep Us from Taking the Chances We Need to Take
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Lovedrcmnd.app
James Joyce: A Political LifeTheir words
An excellent book, and it truly induces us to revalue Joyce and understand him in a new light.
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Justin Gest, Democratic Drain: Global Migration and the Struggle for Democracy is a political economy argument that widespread immigration can drain home countries of their democracy supporters to some extent.
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Daniel Susskind, What Should My Children Do?: How to Flourish in the Age of AI is a book that needed to be written.
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Likedrcmnd.app
Demographic Headwinds: The Economic Consequences of Lower Birth Rates and Longer LivesTheir words
A short volume, to the point, worry is in order.
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And there is Jeremy A. Simmons, Sea of Treasures: A Cultural History of Ancient Indian Ocean Trade
17 June
10 June
27 May
13 May
6 May
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Cherokees in War & at Peace 1670-1840Their words
An excellent book, one of the two best books on a single Native American tribe I have read.
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Likedrcmnd.app
Preparing for War: The Making of the Geneva ConventionsTheir words
A very good look at the negotiations behind the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and just how driven by national self-interest they were, including colonial motives from the major colonial powers, who wished to retain stronger rights to put down uprisings.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Where the Music Had To Go: How Bob Dylan and the Beatles Changed Each Other — and the WorldTheir words
An excellent and engaging book, which even serious fans can learn from.
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Readrcmnd.app
Beyond Beauty: A Portrait of John Singer SargentTheir words
There is also Devon Cox, Beyond Beauty: A Portrait of John Singer Sargent
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Where the Music Had To GoTheir words
An excellent and engaging book, which even serious fans can learn from.
29 April
15 April
3 April
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Mind of South Africa: The Story of the Rise and Fall of ApartheidTheir words
Definitely recommended, written at the very end of the apartheid era which gives it yet another angle of interest.
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Likedrcmnd.app
The Bomb: South Africa's Nuclear Weapons ProgrammeTheir words
I had been looking for a book on this topic for a long time, and finally I found the right one in a South African bookshop.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Four Heavens: A New History of the Ancient MayaTheir words
We keep on learning lots about the Maya, and this is the best book to follow what has been going on.
+ 2 more
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Likedrcmnd.app
Exit Stalin: The Soviet Union as a Civilization 1953-1991Their words
This one is well written, broad in scope, and yet rich in detail, treating the covered era as a living, breathing time in human history.
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A very useful book about the history of proving math theorems by computer.
1 April
Nothing matches.
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