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Writer and author of All the Wrong Moves; his newsletter covers meditation, relationships and creativity, and he co-runs a perfume line.

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  A small, sustained reduction in selfishness compounds into a large positive change in a person over years.

  Their words

  Being 10% less of an asshole, compounded over years, has tremendous effects.

  Average moments of a long-term meditatorsashachapin.substack.com

Economist at George Mason University, co-author of Marginal Revolution, host of Conversations with Tyler. Writes in short, dense claims about economics, culture and AI, and has moved position on AI in public more than once.

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  A huge positive shock to Intelligence increases marginal returns, employment, and real wages in the Polanyi knowledge sector.

  America

  Their words

  Now recently the U.S. economy has experienced a huge positive shock to its Intelligence, with more to come. The core prediction is that this increases marginal returns, employment, and real wages in the Polanyi knowledge sector.

  A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com

Writer and teacher on productivity and personal knowledge management. Author of Building a Second Brain and founder of Forte Labs, which runs the course of the same name.

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  Educational methods should be validated by measurable research, not by how satisfying they feel to students and teachers.

  Their words

  The deeper lesson is that education has to be research-based and proven to work measurably, not just based on positive emotions or customer satisfaction.

  fortelabs.com

Founder of Trilogy Software and principal of Alpha School, the private school network built around two hours a day of AI-delivered mastery learning.

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  The single best thing AI could do for American education is not a chatbot but an individualized lesson plan that catches a child up to grade level.

  America

  Their words

  The most positive use case if you said, you know, what's the number one thing we could use AI for? It's not giving kids chatbots that's going to work. It's giving them an individualized lesson plan based on their level to catch them up to grade level. And that would be the single best thing we could do to fix education in America.

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Programmer; makes Handmade Hero and teaches Performance-Aware Programming, and argues loudly about how software got slow.

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  The games industry already ran the experiment everyone expects from AI, when engines became licensable, and the results were not good news.

  Their words

  I've said like the licensable engine thing kind of was our AI transition already unfortunately and uh I regret to inform you that the news is not probably that positive.

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Creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals, and creator of Omarchy.

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  The current pace of AI-driven work is not sustainable, and agents gaining autonomy should eventually make work calmer, not more frantic.

  Their words

  And I do think some of that is positive and energizing, but I also think you can certainly go too far with it, and I also think the current pace is not sustainable.

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Neurologist at Oxford; studies apathy, motivation and attention after brain injury, and edits the journal Brain.

From one piece How to Improve Motivation & Overcome Procrastination | Dr. Masud Husain 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there

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  You do not have to finish a project to be rewarded for it: being told 'well done' for one piece is itself a motivational pull that keeps the work moving.

  Their words

  It would also help if your manager said, "Well done for getting that bit done." Right? That's that's also a motivation pull to think, "Yeah, actually I don't need to get the whole piece done to get the reward of somebody identified that as a positive thing to have done."

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  A stimulant taken to sharpen an already-high performer is more likely to make them worse, because the dose-response curve is an inverted U.

  Their words

  If you start from a low baseline of performance, you might get some positive boost. It's quite small, but you might get it. But if you are actually quite a high performer, then you risk getting worse. with this is called the inverse U-shaped curve.

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Psychiatrist and clinical assistant professor at Case Western Reserve University. Writes Psychiatry at the Margins on the philosophical and scientific arguments inside psychiatry and the psy-sciences.

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  The Rumpelstiltskin effect claims only that the act of being diagnosed can itself help, not that a diagnosis is a net good for the patient.

  Their words

  The Rumpelstiltskin effect is not a claim that receiving a diagnosis is a net benefit or a net positive. It is a claim that the mere act of receiving a diagnosis can be beneficial.

  psychiatrymargins.com

Mathematician and Senior Lecturer in the Mathematics department at Columbia University. Author of the book Not Even Wrong and of the long-running physics blog of the same name.

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  AI agents are starting to have a major positive impact on mathematical research.

  Their words

  While in mathematics AI agents are starting to have a major positive impact on research (e.g. by resolving the Jacobian conjecture), the situation is very different in hep-th.

  Various and Sundrymath.columbia.edu

Professor of psychology at UCLA, where he studies human memory, attention and cognitive ageing, and author of Better with Age: The Psychology of Successful Aging.

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  Believing that ageing goes well is itself protective: people with a positive attitude to ageing live longer and are less likely to develop dementia.

  Their words

  And actually, more recent research shows that those who have a positive attitude live longer, they're less likely to develop dementia.

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Co-founder and chief executive of Meta Platforms, the company he started as Facebook in 2004.

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  People will matter more in an AI future, not less, and giving them better tools is what makes that future a good one.

  Their words

  I think like people are really important and I think we'll be more important in the future and giving people more tools to be more productive is going to be like a critical part of any kind of positive future

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Programmer; wrote Extreme Programming Explained and Test-Driven Development, signed the Agile Manifesto, and writes Tidy First?.

From one piece Martin Fowler & Kent Beck: Frameworks for reinventing software, again and again 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there

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  Slow models are better company than fast ones, because the minutes an agent spends working are the minutes two humans get to talk about the design.

  Their words

  But my my experience pairing with a two humans and a genie or multiple genies has been very positive. And the fact that they're kind of slow is really nice. So, every time the models come out and they're faster, I'm like, "Oh, there's less time to talk."

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  Agents are driving a re-soloing of programming, undoing the safe social environment that extreme programming built for people who are not naturally social.

  Their words

  So, I see a a big trend is the re-soloing of programming. Where a big part of extreme programming is creating a safe social environment for basically antisocial people. Not just asocial, antisocial. And the when I think about the degree of interaction on an XP team, people aren't talking to each other hours a day and happy to be doing so because it's set up for that to be a positive experience.

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American game designer and director, for nineteen years at Blizzard as a World of Warcraft quest designer and then game director of Overwatch; now runs the independent studio Kintsugiyama.

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  Social media is built so that maximum hyperbole wins, and the negative direction pays better than the positive.

  Their words

  And unfortunately, social media in general is designed in such a way where the maximum hyperbole works, and that’s how you get the most points is by being max hyperbolic.

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Engineer writing about the physical economy — oil and gas, manufacturing, batteries, drones and what it costs to build things.

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  The real cost of the CHIPS Act is the technical talent it ties up, not its fifty-billion-dollar price tag.

  Their words

  The CHIPS Act might still be a positive, but the cost is almost certainly many times the $50 billion price tag.

  Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site

Executive coach for product leaders. Previously a partner at GV (Google Ventures) and a product manager at Google. Writes at Bring the Donuts, including a standing essential-reading list for product managers.

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  The Power of a Positive No: Save The Deal Save The Relationship and Still Say No

  Their words

  . Saying no gracefully and firmly is one of the most important skills for a product manager to develop. This is the classic guide for learning to do so.

  bringthedonuts.com

Demographer; writes on fertility, marriage and population, and directs the Pro-Family Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies.

From one piece Falling Fertility Is Not About Opportunity Cost 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there

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  Richer countries have fewer children than poor ones, but within a country a boom raises births and a bust lowers them.

  Their words

  Although the cross-sectional relationship between national income and fertility is negative, the longitudinal relationship between national income and fertility is positive: economic booms create baby booms, economic busts create baby busts.

  Falling Fertility Is Not About Opportunity Costlymanstone.substack.com

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  Earning more does not make a woman less likely to have children, except at the very bottom of the income distribution.

  Their words

  the shift from 50th to 99th percentile earnings has no negative effect on women’s fertility, and unearned income for women has a neutral-to-positive effect

  Falling Fertility Is Not About Opportunity Costlymanstone.substack.com

Machine learning engineer and independent AI consultant. He writes about LLM evaluation, tooling and applied ML at hamel.dev, and previously worked on machine learning at GitHub.

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  Braintrust

  Their words

  The panel had a generally positive view of Braintrust, highlighting its clean UI and structured approach to evaluations. The tool’s emphasis on human-in-the-loop workflows was a significant strength.

  hamel.dev

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  Arize Phoenix

  Their words

  The panel had a generally positive view of Phoenix, with one panelist calling it one of his “favorite open source eval tools.” The tool is positioned as a developer-first, notebook-centric platform.

  hamel.dev

Psychiatrist and clinical assistant professor at Case Western Reserve University. Writes Psychiatry at the Margins on the philosophical and scientific arguments inside psychiatry and the psy-sciences.

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  Diagnoses that have therapeutic effects are medical interventions and should be treated and researched as such.

  Psychotherapy

  Their words

  If a clinical diagnosis can have a therapeutic effect, then, at least in some instances, diagnoses are medical interventions in themselves and ought to be treated and researched as such, with an eye to both positive effects and potential iatrogenic harms.

  doi.org

Founder of Terraform Industries and formerly a physicist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory; writes about energy, space and manufacturing.

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  Covering desert in solar panels is good for the desert: it shades the ground, holds moisture, and would pay for reversing desertification.

  solar

  Their words

  And the impact of solar array on desert is arguably positive because it shades the ground and improves like soil moisture retention. Um there like if you wanted to reverse desertification, you would basically just deploy solar panels on it and that would pay for the process.

  youtube.com

Chief executive of Alphabet and Google; joined Google in 2004 and led Chrome and Android before taking over in 2015.

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  Whatever the term, by 2030 AI progress will be so dramatic that the world will be dealing with its consequences, good and bad, in a big way.

  Their words

  I almost feel the term doesn't matter, what I know is by 2030 there'll be such dramatic progress. We'll be dealing with the consequences of that progress, both the positive externalities and the negative externalities that come with it in a big way by 2030. So that I strongly feel.

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