In lots of 80s/early 90s profiles of quantitative investors, there's a list of the general strategies they used, and a surprisingly common one is "Japanese warrants." In today's Capital Gains, we look at what that meant and why it was such a common trade:
Making qualitative claims about alignment, based on quantitative data on mundane use case tests, was bullshit when Anthropic did it, and it is bullshit now when OpenAI does it. You cannot conclude one from the other.
But the problem is these agents are just naturally pretty sloppy and they're naturally pretty spiky in their capability profiles. And so you wouldn't necessarily even if you noticed a weird error that it made, you wouldn't necessarily jump to the conclusion that it was like because of some sort of malign crazy conspiracy.
uh the we found that that leads to improvement and we saw in the shirt folding example we saw like a quantitative bump from using that sort of imagination compared to not using it. At the same time I think that the model actually performed surprisingly well without that as well.
But um but I think systems thinking is never going to go out of style. So, I think it's definitely a mistake to go all in on Word Cell. Like, I think you need to you need to shape rotate.
Given the focus in Coolidge, Shadwick, and Payton on the fundamental role of warrants in inserting a judicial check on the executive, it seems out of place to say that this can be satisfied by the executive checking itself.
I am myself skeptical that there is a clearly defined notion of who “the right people” might be, and thus I am on public choice grounds far more skeptical of government than Keynes was.
I wouldn’t say that this is the most compelling book I’ve ever read in terms of the prose style or storytelling, but it does provide a very helpful, almost quantitative overview of all the potential threats looming out there
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