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The last 25 years have shown us what’s possible. The next 25 will depend on whether the world keeps showing up for the children who need it most:
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19 September
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Their words
RSI is poised to make modern LLMs vastly cheaper. Trends that have shown LLMs get exponentially cheaper at a given intelligence are likely to accelerate.
16 September
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Their words
the fact that they're flying so quickly shows that Xi is unpopular in China.
15 September
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I think we should use this kinds of data to completely turn around Europe's immigration policy: - We should have super easy inflow for immigrants from countries whose previous immigrants have shown low crime rates You're from Japan? Just fly here and you can stay forever - We should then almost completely ban any inflow from countries whose previous immigrants have shown high crime rates with instant deportations
8 September
4 September
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You have to treat Mythos 5.1 as being a Tier 2 manipulator, until and unless you can show that it is not one.
Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1: The System Cardthezvi.substack.com
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There is also a very important step called randomization. Is that you have to take the same environment and then randomize the conditions. So, the cable doesn't literally only, you know, uh bend this way. It can bend a different way or the box can have different sizes, colors, different lids, and all that.
3 September
30 August
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korrents.com
States do not behave like predators by nature, and the American alliance system is the standing proof of it.Their words
If there is one thing we can say that has been shown, it is that states do not behave like this by nature.
26 August
17 August
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Their words
So, I thought this was a really cool study because it showed very clearly that there is temporal persistence in emotions and sadness probably has one of the longest time constants as we know from personal experience. But it's separate from just declarative memory.
22 July
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On changing their mind
If you had asked me this question in the lead up to my 2019 book, Ultralearning, I would have said no. I was a strong advocate for doing hard problem solving and the associated mental effort it requires as a way to learn difficult skills.
20 July
From one piece Accelerate Learning & Increase Cognitive Capacity | Dr. Tommy Wood 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Cooling someone after a head injury does not help; what matters is stopping them from getting hot.Their words
So there have been lots of studies where they've done cooling hypothermia in people after traumatic brain injuries and concussions hasn't really shown much of an effect. What seems to be important is preventing hyperothermia.
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But there are now at least three randomized control trials that have shown that omega-3 status and B vitamin status interact and they're dependent on one another. So, if you give uh B vitamins to somebody who has elevated homocyine, you bring down their homocyine, but they have poor omega-3 levels, you don't see any benefit.
15 July
13 July
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But her work has shown that when you give people different time perspectives, they make different choices. So if you unfortunately tell someone who's younger that they only have 5 to 10 years left to live, they're going to make choices very much like older adults too.
12 July
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After the financial deplatforming of Western proles and foreign elites, of Canadian truckers and 145M Russians, it’s clear that digital finance is a weapon of war.
29 June
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Everything isn’t racist, but if this isn’t, then Alito failed miserably to make the case.
SCOTUS Whitewashes Otherwise Racist Decisionblog.simplejustice.us
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Standardized systems are important, and there is a systems premium in the US and UK, but it can't be about a regular pipeline because London has that and yet Crossrail engaged in some really dodgy systems decisions that drove costs up.
8 May
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korrents.com
Coming into a project with a guess about what the data will show has, again and again, turned out to be wrong.Their words
The work that I've been involved in is consistently shown that I was wrong in my biases coming into the work and I've really been almost traumatized by this. Like again and again I've come into a project with some kind of guess about what the data was showing and then the data doesn't show that.
22 February
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History has shown very extensively that, left to their own devices, even if something could be done safely, people in a hurry will find all sorts of ways to f*** things up.
We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com
24 December 2025
26 September 2025
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So I don't think uh learning is really about training. I think learning is about about learning. It's about an active process. The child tries things and sees what happens.
4 September 2025
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But yeah, there's been a back and forth about whether dinosaurs were already on their way out or were they a bit limited by the very end of the Cretaceous. I think the more recent analyses have shown that's probably not the case, because in other words, they were basically doing fine right up to the extinction event. And so yeah, if the asteroid hadn't hit, there's no reason to think that they were on some kind of terminal decline.
16 October 2024
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The general view of science, I think, is that we’re accidents of evolution. When we die, the light blinks out. There’s no more of us. There’s no such thing as the soul. But that’s not a proven point. There’s no experiment that proves that’s the case.
11 September 2024
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Their words
If one really wanted to know whether a treatment (e.g., CBT, IPT, ACT, EMDR) was more effective, it had to be directly compared to an approach intended to help - what Wampold and colleagues termed, a "bona fide" treatment. Doing otherwise, they argued, conflated artifacts of research design with actual research results.
18 April 2024
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The optimal scenario is typically when the generators supply 1% of yearly electricity (shown below).
How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site
25 March 2024
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Based on public commercial data that tells a lot about the military potential of these dual-use robotic spacecraft, we have shown that China can manufacture and deploy 200 such spacecraft as early as 2026, enough to cripple critical US satellites in geosynchronous, highly elliptical, and other orbits, and thus severely degrading space support to wartime operations.
12 January 2024
1 June 2022
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The analysis in this chapter has shown that there is no such thing as a universal threshold over which debt becomes unsustainable, and that the relevant debt level depends on many factors, in particular the real interest rate on debt.
25 May 2022
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Pure discovery learning, where students are never shown instructions or examples, fails miserably.
24 August 2020
30 August 2018
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The work of Philip Tetlock, PhD and others has shown that people who have one big idea to explain everything (“hedgehogs” or ideologues) are very bad at accurately modeling the world, predicting outcomes, and recommending effective actions.
27 June 2013
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My rule of thumb in this profession: “If the New York Times covers a research paper, the next year we will learn that it’s wrong”.
10 March 2010
30 August 2005
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korrents.com
Most claimed research findings are false, and that can be shown rather than merely suspected.Their words
It can be proven that most claimed research findings are false. Here I will examine the key factors that influence this problem
1 September 2003
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Their words
Visual reasoning usually works more effectively when relevant information is shown side by side. Often, the more intense the detail, the greater the clarity and understanding.
1 January 1998
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korrents.com
Convolutional neural networks are specifically designed to handle variability in two-dimensional shapes.Their words
Convolutional neural networks, which are specifically designed to deal with the variability of 2D shapes, are shown to outperform all other techniques.
1 October 1975
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