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Their words
lossy self-improvement remains my baseline on the trajectory of progress, and the increased discussion of extinction risk seems very misplaced
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19 September
28 August
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
So my baseline assumption is that people will continue complaining about the trillions of dollars we have in debt but it won’t lead to a financial crisis.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
24 August
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Their words
If you start from a low baseline of performance, you might get some positive boost. It's quite small, but you might get it. But if you are actually quite a high performer, then you risk getting worse. with this is called the inverse U-shaped curve.
12 August
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Their words
Here's a baseline. Uh you cannot send anyone something you haven't read. And in fact, if it would take them longer to read it than it took you to make it, it's probably slop.
27 April
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korrents.com
AI is raising the baseline of what counts as acceptable public service, not just disrupting government from outside.Their words
AI is not only an exogenous shock that government will have to absorb. It is also moving the bar on what counts as acceptable service in the first place.
12 November 2025
21 September 2025
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Their words
But feedback really in my mind ideally should be like a daily practice because the thing that matters for us in the long run as a team is how quickly are we getting better. So a team that just gets 1% better every week compared to a team that gets 1% better a month is even if they start off at a much lower baseline is going to outperform in a very short amount of time the team that doesn't get better.
4 September 2025
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Their words
The baseline of user expectation quality and craft keeps rising.
23 March 2025
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Their words
The key thing is, and this applies to any survey methodology, if you're going to change the method of surveying, all of your old numbers are invalidated. So, it's just a new baseline going forwards.
9 March 2025
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Their words
It's easy to get impressive-looking results if you're comparing against a poorly-tuned baseline, and that observation turns out to explain a surprising fraction of supposed improvements.
7 July 2024
17 June 2024
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Their words
At current deployment rates it will take Waymo about 20 years with ZERO fatalities to show they are net as safe as average human driver fatality rates (including the old cars, impaired drivers, etc. in that comparison baseline).
Perspective on Waymo's Safety Progresssafeautonomy.blogspot.com
23 May 2024
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