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Bryan Caplan Newsletter
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7 September
7 April
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Their words
there's sort of there's two types of work that tends to be involved in any kind of creative project. There's routine stuff and there you just want to avoid procrastination. You just want to like, you know, how do I get good at this or how do I outsource it and how do I do it as rapidly as possible? Um and just avoid you know, like getting into a situation where you're prolonging it. Um, and then there's high variance stuff where you actually you need to be willing to to you know take a lot of time.
28 September 2025
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Their words
That makes perfect sense when you consider that schools control 10% or less of the variance in student academic outputs.
There Are No Miracles in Educationfreddiedeboer.substack.com
2 September 2025
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Their words
You see this for the music now. You can generate new music. It could generate new stuff that you wouldn't know. For an LLM variance is bad. originality is is is a lower score. So what's the feedback loop for original but good?
1 April 2025
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korrents.com
A manager's own individual technical output drops by roughly 10-20% per engineer they manage.Their words
you should expect to have something like 10-20% less individual output per engineer you manage, depending on how experienced you are, they are, etc., and with substantial week-to-week variance.
20 January 2021
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korrents.com
Pre-grant peer review predicts which research will have impact substantially better than chance does.Their words
I have reviewed before the effectiveness of peer review at figuring out "what's good" in the context of grant awards, finding that peer review as currently practiced does substantially better than chance at predicting future impact, especially for the most impactful of the papers; but at the same time is is far from perfect, leaving plenty of variance unexplained.
30 August 2016
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