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Tim Urban Blog
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15 September
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27 July
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Their words
Like this is actually like a new form of test time compute. Like when we talk about the scaling laws and kind of we talk about the model getting more intelligent over time, historically, it's been a function of the size of the neural net, the amount of training data, and the number of flops that you put in to the training. And then recently, we also added test time compute. So this is essentially a fancy way a researcher way of saying how many tokens does it generate. And now dynamic workflows are essentially a new way to orchestrate test time compute.
24 July
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13 April
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Their words
Fourth, so far only proxies for IIT measures have been computed, and not approximations.
23 March
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Their words
And so the next scaling law is the agentic scaling law. It's kind of like multiplying AI. Multiplying AI, we could spin off agents as fast as you want to spin off agents. And so, you know, I… You know, I have four scaling laws.
22 January
From one piece Can ICE Enter a Home To Make an Arrest With Only an Administrative Warrant? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Even if the policy is unconstitutional, as it seems to be, a person who is illegally searched probably can't sue ICE for violating their constitutional rights.
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Their words
Back when the Fourth Amendment was enacted, the most fundamental remedy for an unlawful government entry into your home was a civil suit for trespass against the officers.
16 December 2025
From one piece Are There Fourth Amendment Rights in Google Search Terms? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
A company's terms of service cannot enlarge or shrink your constitutional privacy rights in either direction.Their words
As I have argued here, I don't think TOS alter Fourth Amendment rights—up or down.
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korrents.com
Whether the Fourth Amendment protects the terms you type into a search engine is a genuinely close question.Their words
Doctrinally, either answer is at least plausible; even under my own take of what Carpenter means, it's not an easy call.
18 November 2025
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korrents.com
The effectiveness of a plot twist depends on how carefully a story's point of view relates to its audience.Their words
Point of view is essential for effective twists. Contrast Frozen with Fight Club, where the narrator's unreliability works because the entire story flows through his perspective and he maintains a direct relationship with the audience through fourth-wall breaks.
Frozen's Lie: How a Tiny Detail Can Ruin a Storynateliason.com
24 April 2025
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Their words
Unfortunately, making those simple changes is infuriatingly difficult. Global meat consumption keeps rising every year. The world still wastes at least one fourth of its food.
It's Hard to Change Our Behaviorsmichaelgrunwald.substack.com
26 March 2025
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korrents.com
Applying the old Fourth Amendment rules unchanged to digital evidence would gut its protection over time.Their words
Because of the way computers happen to work, sticking with the old rules would mean gutting Fourth Amendment protection over time.
2 February 2025
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Who We Are and How We Got HereTheir words
Foundation, The Lessons of History, Unqualified Reservations, A Short History of Nearly Everything, The Selfish Gene, Albion's Seed, War and Peace and War, Stalin's War, Energy and Civilization, Who We Are and How We Got Here, The Ancient City, The Fourth Turning, The Grey Lady Winked
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Selfish GeneTheir words
Foundation, The Lessons of History, Unqualified Reservations, A Short History of Nearly Everything, The Selfish Gene, Albion's Seed, War and Peace and War, Stalin's War, Energy and Civilization, Who We Are and How We Got Here, The Ancient City, The Fourth Turning, The Grey Lady Winked
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Albion's SeedTheir words
Foundation, The Lessons of History, Unqualified Reservations, A Short History of Nearly Everything, The Selfish Gene, Albion's Seed, War and Peace and War, Stalin's War, Energy and Civilization, Who We Are and How We Got Here, The Ancient City, The Fourth Turning, The Grey Lady Winked
+ 2 more
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Stalin's WarTheir words
Foundation, The Lessons of History, Unqualified Reservations, A Short History of Nearly Everything, The Selfish Gene, Albion's Seed, War and Peace and War, Stalin's War, Energy and Civilization, Who We Are and How We Got Here, The Ancient City, The Fourth Turning, The Grey Lady Winked
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Fourth TurningTheir words
Foundation, The Lessons of History, Unqualified Reservations, A Short History of Nearly Everything, The Selfish Gene, Albion's Seed, War and Peace and War, Stalin's War, Energy and Civilization, Who We Are and How We Got Here, The Ancient City, The Fourth Turning, The Grey Lady Winked
16 October 2024
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Their words
But what I do suggest is that there were very low platforms on the Giza Plateau that are much older and that when we look at the three Great Pyramids, we are looking at a renovation and a restoration and a enhancement of much older structures that had existed on the Giza Plateau for a much longer period before that.
30 September 2024
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korrents.com
The Maya calendar never said the world ends in 2012, and their own texts talk about time after it.Their words
In fact, there’s a handful of dates that tell us that the fourth creation does continue farther on, that that baktun place should have 20 baktuns in it, like their counting system would dictate, not 13.
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