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18 September
Writes The Diff, a newsletter on inflections in finance and tech read by hedge fund managers, founders and VCs. Previously worked in finance at SAC Capital/Point72.
17 September
Founder of the Free Software Movement and the GNU Project, original author of GNU Emacs and the GNU General Public License, and long-time president of the Free Software Foundation.
14 September
Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.
12 September
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase, a near-daily account of what is happening in AI and what they think it means. Former Magic: the Gathering pro and trader; unusually willing to put a number on a belief and to grade their own past calls.
11 September
Managing partner at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the blog The Irrelevant Investor and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Ben Carlson.
10 September
Writes The Pragmatic Engineer, the software-engineering newsletter, and wrote The Software Engineer's Guidebook. Formerly an engineering manager at Uber, and at Microsoft/Skype and Skyscanner before that.
Their words
I'm sorry for employees who got equity issued at the $17B or $11B valuation - the dangers of too high valuations!
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@GergelyOrosz on X x.com
9 September
Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
Almost every technology boom creates a bubble, then a bust, whether it’s railroads, the Industrial Revolution, or the late 1920s. Think about the late '20s: electricity, refrigeration, telephones, radios, airplanes, and cars were all emerging at once. Naturally, people wanted to invest in these miracles. The danger is that people fail to distinguish the miracle from the investment. A technology can be truly transformative, but if the stocks are priced too high or bought on debt, you get a crash. That is the mechanics behind how bubbles form and burst. New technology will be great, there is no… energy Related
Writer and former Substack product manager; publishes essays and interviews on technology, culture and China at jasmi.news.
I hear roughly 3 reasons people keep working at AI labs despite believing in ~10% extinction risk: 1) Techno-determinism: Someone will build ASI no matter what, and I can do it better & more safely than China/OpenAI/etc 2) Consequentialism: ASI might kill us, but it also might produce utopia/immortality/superabundance, so it's a +EV bet 3) Self-interest: I am personally having fun & getting rich working on cool tech with friends. I don't think about the macro stuff. Notably, none of this is "I'm hyping up the risk for marketing reasons." People believe what they say, while being capable of a… Quoting @EvanHub Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade. I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to. OpenAI China Related
6 September
Chief Scientist at OpenAI. Worked on the research that turned scaled reinforcement learning into reasoning models, and writes about where he thinks that path leads.
Their words
The strongest argument I see for continuing to train much smarter models quickly is the need to build defensive systems against the dangers posed by other AI.
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An Alien Mind openai.com
26 August
British open-standards and open-source technologist, formerly of the UK Government Digital Service and the W3C Advisory Committee. Blogs at shkspr.mobi, where he posts a book review most weeks.
21 August
Writer and climate campaigner; wrote The End of Nature in 1989, founded 350.org and Third Act, and writes The Crucial Years.
10 August
Indian value investor who taught Behavioural Finance and Business Valuation as an adjunct professor at MDI Gurgaon. He writes the Fundoo Professor blog about investing, moats and mental models.
I asked Claude Fable 5: "How vulnerable is the business model of XYZ (name concealed)? I am referring to competitive attacks from China and dependence, if any, on government policy incentives, etc. There have been so many solar energy and wind energy bubbles in the past, and I have kept away from these companies. Am I being too cautious? solar Anthropic Related
6 August
China economy researcher based in Beijing who writes on his personal blog about Chinese political economy, history, books and music.
Li Daokui's comments are important because there are so few domestic voices in China stating what (I think) is the obvious truth about the economy: the main problem is that aggregate demand is weak, growth is running below potential and macro policies are inappropriate. This is not a novel, original or unusual insight: it's what lots of people (myself and others) have been saying for years, and is also in the most recent of the much-maligned IMF reports on China. But it runs directly contrary to the official government diagnosis which is that aggregate demand is fine and the economy mainly su… China government Related
2 August
Chief product officer at the live-shopping marketplace Whatnot, previously chief product officer at Twitch and a product lead on growth at Twitter.
Their words
if you don't actually push yourself down to sit alongside your IC engineers and your IC designers and your IC PMs, you don't actually know that stuff. So you can't make good macro decisions without the micro.
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1 August
China economy researcher based in Beijing who writes on his personal blog about Chinese political economy, history, books and music.
30 July
Author of The Simple Path to Wealth and of the jlcollinsnh.com stock series on index-fund investing.
28 July
China economy researcher based in Beijing who writes on his personal blog about Chinese political economy, history, books and music.
Excellent piece, very clear and accurate. Just what I've been saying! China's weak real effective exchange rate is a consequence of bad domestic macro policies, and appreciating the nominal rate without different macro policies won't get rid of deflationary pressures Quoting @GitaGopinath The Chinese yuan is no doubt undervalued. But demanding that China revalue the yuan gets both the diagnosis and the cure wrong. Our piece, with @pogourinchas & @helene_rey in the @TheEconomist is out: China Related
4 June
Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.
The macro data giveth and the macro data taketh. Productivity for Q1 revised down. Still a respectable pace over the last five quarters (2.1% annual rate--five quarters because shifting means Q1 & Q2 last year were two sides of the same coin). Related
Economist at Oxford's Global Priorities Institute; works on what advanced AI would do to growth, saving and the long-run economy.
Their words
here prices are adjusting in this interesting way that too many macro models don't allow for, right? So, that what what a what's happening is what would be called investment specific technical change where yeah, the price of capital is like falling relative to the price of consumption instead of like the standard doing the standard macro thing of saying there's just output.
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13 May
Writes Useful Fictions on agency and how to get better at things; a former appellate lawyer and the top-ranked woman in professional poker in 2017.
19 February
Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
2025 Naturally, as a systematic global macro investor leaving 2025, I reflected on the mechanics of what happened, particularly in the markets.
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13 February
Co-founder and CEO of Anthropic; previously VP of research at OpenAI.
Their words
given the serious dangers that I lay out in adolescence of technology around things like the you know, kind of biological weapons and bioterrorism, autonomy risk and the timelines we've been talking about, like 10 years is an eternity. Like that's that's a that's a I I think that's a crazy thing to do.
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3 February
American writer and long-term traveller. Blogs at tynan.com about travel, owning few possessions, habits and the gear he carries; author of Superhuman by Habit and Make It Big.
Their words
You still have to have to fight against the Apple blue-bubble brainwashing, but once you do you'll never go back.
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Gear Post 2026 tynan.com
9 December 2025
Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management; author of the Oaktree memos.
26 October 2025
Web infrastructure engineer and standards editor; chaired the IETF HTTP working group and co-authored core HTTP and Atom specifications.
"AI hucksters [...] will tell you that there is only one way that this technology can be used: to fire a whole ton of workers and make the survivors do their job at frantic Lucy-in-the-chocolate-factory cadence. While it’s true that this is the only way that their companies could possibly be worth the hundreds of billions of dollars that have been pumped into them (so far), there’s no iron law that says that investors in tech bubbles should always turn a profit." locusmag.com
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29 August 2025
China economy researcher based in Beijing who writes on his personal blog about Chinese political economy, history, books and music.
11 July 2024
Rust engineer at Google working on Android; maintains Tokio and works on Rust in the Linux kernel.
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