Ramez Naam
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From one piece @ramez on X 2 beliefs · x.com
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korrents.com
It is far from clear that LLMs are conscious, because their architecture is very different from animal brainsTheir words
That doesn't tell us that LLMs are conscious, though. They have very different architecture than human or animal brains. It's far from a slam dunk.
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korrents.com
Machines can be consciousTheir words
It's clear to me that consciousness can exist in other substrates than humans, including in digital systems.
27 September
From one piece Where’s the “intelligence explosion”? 3 beliefs · rameznaam.com
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korrents.com
AI research at OpenAI is an order of magnitude or more harder than metrics, benchmarks, or forecasts suggest.Their words
A four-hour benchmark horizon is about 16 times longer than OpenAI’s research horizon. AI 2027’s 11-hour forecast is about 44 times longer. Of course, the tasks being performed by researchers at OpenAI aren’t the same as those in the METR benchmark. So we should expect some discrepancy. This, however, goes well beyond that. Actual AI research at OpenAI is an order of magnitude or more harder than metrics, benchmarks, or forecasts suggest.
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korrents.com
Recursive self-improvement (RSI) may not lead to runaway superintelligence without a major conceptual breakthrough.AI alignmentrecursive self-improvement
Their words
I do expect autonomous self-improvement to arrive at some point. I’m skeptical that it leads to Type 5 - runaway super-intelligence - without a major conceptual breakthrough.
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Their words
Given our best current data, the AI self-improvement loop would need to be roughly 5–10× stronger to sustain itself, let alone run away.
16 September
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Their words
I can't rule out that there's some subjective experience happening in an LLM.
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Their words, before
And beyond that, by the time solar scale has doubled 4 more times, to the equivalent of 16% of today’s electricity demand (and somewhat less of future demand), we should see solar at 3 cents per kwh in the sunniest areas, and 4.5 cents per kwh in moderately sunny areas.
Their words now
Both of those forecasts were wrong. Solar has plunged in price faster than anyone – including me – predicted.
From one piece Solar's Future is Insanely Cheap (2020) 5 beliefs · rameznaam.com
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korrents.com
Demand for electricity will rise to absorb far more solar than is currently considered feasible.Their words
Add these up, and it’s plausible that solar’s contribution to the energy system could double or triple the amount currently considered feasible for solar to provide.
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korrents.com
Solar's future price should be predicted from how much has been built, not from how much time has passed.Their words
We can use the last decade to predict the future prices of solar power. Not by looking at the cost of solar as a function of time, but by looking at the cost of solar as a function of cumulative scale of the solar industry.
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korrents.com
Average solar electricity prices in sunny parts of the world will fall to one or two cents per kwh by 2030 or 2035.Their words
This incredible pace of solar cost decline, with average prices in sunny parts of the world down to a penny or two by 2030 or 2035, is just remarkable.
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Their words
In short solar prices have dropped faster and lower than almost anyone has expected.
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Their words
The data paint an incredible picture: One that shows the price of solar electricity from utility-scale systems dropping by anywhere from 30-40% with each doubling of cumulative solar deployment.
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