Philip Tetlock
Psychologist and political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania; author of Expert Political Judgment (2005), which compared forecasters he called foxes and hedgehogs, and co-author of Superforecasting (2015).
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What they believe
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Forecasters modest about how predictable politics is, the 'foxes', made more accurate predictions than theoretically confident 'hedgehogs'.
Forecasters who were more modest about what could be accomplished predictably were actually generating more accurate predictions than forecasters who were more confident about what could be achieved. We called these theoretically confident forecasters "hedgehogs." We called these more modest, self-critical forecasters "foxes," drawing on Isaiah Berlin's famous essay, "The Hedgehog and the Fox."
edge.orgSaid 6 Dec 2012This on korrents
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Forecasters modest about how predictable politics is, the 'foxes', made more accurate predictions than theoretically confident 'hedgehogs'.
Forecasters who were more modest about what could be accomplished predictably were actually generating more accurate predictions than forecasters who were more confident about what could be achieved. We called these theoretically confident forecasters "hedgehogs." We called these more modest, self-critical forecasters "foxes," drawing on Isaiah Berlin's famous essay, "The Hedgehog and the Fox."
How to Win at Forecasting (Edge conversation) Said 6 Dec 2012
A fox who sees many factors in play cannot judge in a blink; they reason 'on the one hand, and on the other' and must reconcile the conflicting arguments.
If you're a fox and you believe there's some truth to the generalization that rising powers and hegemons tend to come into conflict with each other, but there are lots of other factors in play in the current geopolitical environment that make it less likely that China and the United States will come into conflict. That doesn't allow blink anymore, does it? It leads to "on the one hand, and on the other" patterns of reasoning–and you've got to strike some kind of integrative resolution of the conflicting arguments.
How to Win at Forecasting (Edge conversation) Said 6 Dec 2012
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