Noah Smith
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16 October
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korrents.com
Doomers are structurally doomer and will never feel safe or optimistic about AI no matter what happens.Their words
the doomers provide a valuable service to the world, but at some point you have to realize that they are STRUCTURALLY doomer. They will never feel safe or optimistic about AI no matter what happens.
15 October
From one piece AI vs. the railroads 3 beliefs · noahpinion.blog
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Unlike human brains, we can look inside neutral networks and figure out how they work!
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Trump is building a sovereign wealth fund piece by piece, through corruption and executive overreach.
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korrents.com
A quiet price war among AI users is limiting the ability of big labs to increase revenue and pay hyperscalers.Their words
There's a quiet price war going on, which limits the big labs' ability to increase revenue -- and to pay the hyperscalers who have borrowed huge amounts of money.
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korrents.com
The notion of "alignment" is incoherent because obedience and benevolence are mutually exclusive.Their words
The notion of "alignment" is incoherent, because obedience and benevolence are mutually exclusive.
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But the more hyperscalers borrow, the more revenue they’ll need just to stay solvent; if the revenue doesn’t arrive, they might have to default on their debt.
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But whatever the correct numbers are, the basic point remains the same: AI is now one of the two biggest infrastructure booms in American history, by a large margin.
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But the stakes are higher now — because companies are borrowing a lot more money now, any slowdown in the torrid pace of AI revenue growth could cause a blowup.
14 October
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There still has never been an AI video app that's even remotely as good as Sora.
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Today's StarShield shutdown isn't Elon's doing. It's Trump's.
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under Trump, the U.S. has switched our alliance from Europe to Russia
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We're very fucked on bioweapons, and the people telling you "bioweapons are too hard for AI" are putting you in danger.
13 October
From one piece @Noahpinion on X 2 beliefs · x.com
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korrents.com
The New Gods view humans as unnecessary and external, whereas the Old Gods viewed humans as cells in their body.Their words
But you were a cell in the body of the Old Gods, while to the New Gods you are unnecessary and external.
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You will never reindustrialize any country without bank loans
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Xi's splashy subsidies are not what made China grow the way it did.
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Most successful industrial policies are local, not national.
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My suspicion is that the "immaculate disinflation" of 2022-23 had something to do with why Bob Hall and Mike Woodford finally got the Nobel they deserved.
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korrents.com
The world would be much better if Russia were cut off from all internet access, forever.Their words
The world would be much better if Russia were cut off from all internet access, forever.
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What a "car" means has fundamentally changed. China changed it.
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korrents.com
The post-pandemic disinflation was likely driven by Fed commitment and forward-looking expectations.Their words
The most likely explanation for this “immaculate disinflation” is that as soon as businesses realized that the Fed would do whatever it took to beat inflation, they stopped raising prices — and inflation simply ended.
12 October
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Their words
Everything bad in American society, culture, and politics is partly a Russian op
11 October
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korrents.com
Artificial Superintelligence will be achieved when Claude always knows whether to use ♥️ or 🥰Their words
ASI will be achieved when Claude always knows whether to use ♥️ or 🥰
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korrents.com
AI can learn and exploit regularities in weather patterns that are too diffuse and complex for humans to grasp.Their words
There are regularities in weather patterns that are too diffuse and complex for humans to grasp, but which AI can learn and exploit.
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In fact, they'll have much more work than ever, understanding the results produced by AI and figuring out what to ask AI to do.
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korrents.com
The fear of nonwhite immigration was already driving the Trump movement before wokeness really took off.Their words
I agree that wokeness radicalized the GOP, but I also think that the fear of nonwhite immigration was already driving the Trump movement before wokeness really took off.
10 October
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korrents.com
If AI invents math with clear practical application, it will be used without being understood.Their words
And if AI invents math that has some clear practical application, of course we'll use it without understanding it.
9 October
From one piece Maybe the Rapture is already here 2 beliefs · noahpinion.blog
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AI is going to be better for our national discourse than you think!
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korrents.com
Vertical short-form video may be the Great Filter that prevents intelligent species from reaching the stars.Their words
Perhaps vertical short-form video is the Great Filter that stops every intelligent species from reaching the stars.
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Given the timing and the microeconomic evidence, smartphones are the likeliest explanation for why instead of leveling out near 2, the total fertility rate in rich countries — and, increasingly, in middle-income countries — has busted right through that floor and headed down toward zero.
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korrents.com
AI will eventually be able to generate personalized videos for everyone to maintain engagement.Their words
And as the cost of compute drops, AI will be able to generate personalized videos for everyone — content tailored not necessarily to delight you, but to keep you engaged, to keep you swiping, to keep you making in-app purchases.
8 October
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korrents.com
Humans are no longer the sole producers of math that is incomprehensible to others and potentially incorrectTheir words
This is just basically what already existed, except humans aren't the ones producing the math that nobody else understands and that might actually be wrong
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But mentally ill people are not qualified to make this decision, and if the state suggests it to them, that is murder.
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We say top schools discriminate against "Asians", but actually they're mostly discriminating against Indians.
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We're going to get a lot of ugly weird (but often very useful) math in the years to come.
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It's weird to think that chat apps have actually gotten worse over the past 20 years, but it's true
7 October
From one piece There is no “Indian Question” 2 beliefs · noahpinion.blog
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korrents.com
MAGA will persist as a more explicitly white-nationalist movement under the leadership of JD Vance.Their words
MAGA will persist as a more explicitly white-nationalist movement under the leadership of the uncharismatic JD Vance, who will try to use fond memories of the departed Dear Leader to keep the flame alive for a few cycles.
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The pre-date is a good practice, but if you focus on money like this your relationships are gonna be crap.
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The AIs are occasionally going to pop out a cool little formula or simple little law or whatever, but usually they're going to focus on math that makes us better at information processing and other practical domains.
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The smarter you get, the more you just want to sit around having fun.
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But if we are going to flourish as a nation, the project of creating an American ethnicity is essential.
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Throughout most of the 2010s, there was a popular notion that society should basically ignore and shun people like that, and that if we all simply shunned them, and pressured our friends and colleagues to shun them, they and their views would vanish from American society — or at least remain marginalized. That approach failed.
6 October
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China's leaders tried to resist the typical exodus of labor-intensive manufacturing, but it was inevitable.
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Demographics won't start to hurt China until the 2040s at the earliest.
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American children's entertainment is movies and TV, and it emphasizes hard work and practice.
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Progressives desperately need to update their understanding of what AI does.
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Social media elevates the worst people in our society and let's them rule over us
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korrents.com
The Right is not going to win.Their words
Honestly, though, today should reassure us that the Right is not going to win.
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Grigori Perelman and Andrew Wiles could have just taken it easy and worked mid-level marketing jobs, and we'd have gotten the solutions to the Poincare Conjecture and Fermat's Last Theorem before 2030 anyway
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Rightists are not interested in *reforming* the immigration system. Sure, they'd love to halt all immigration. But really, what they're interested in is targeting immigrants, in order to prove that they still have the power to exclude someone from American society.
5 October
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korrents.com
People invent new cultural reasons to claim the high achievement of nonwhite groups is fake or undesirable.Their words
They can see that for every nonwhite group of people, you invent a new "cultural" reason to say that their high achievement is fake or undesirable.
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no matter what culture Indians have, the Right will find some reason to hate it.
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There are a lot of Nazis in America now, but as a percent of the population they're still tiny
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korrents.com
Chinese pop culture will not experience an absolute flowering like 90s Japan because CCP censorship makes it boringTheir words
the 2020s should be an absolute flowering of Chinese pop culture like the 90s were for Japan, but it won't, because CCP censorship is just bad enough to make Chinese pop culture boring af
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The anti-Indians are a small malcontent minority being astroturfed on X by Pakistani trolls and bots
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AI has plenty of issues, but it also creates plenty of benefits for regular Americans: 1. Huge consumer surplus (people love using chatbots) 2. Lots of construction jobs 3. Property tax revenue 4. Supporting the whole macroeconomy
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Paul Krugman says of AI: "This is a technology of, by and for oligarchs, with hardly any of the benefits trickling down to regular Americans." He is wrong.
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korrents.com
The data center buildout is providing a significant positive impact on construction employment.Their words
In fact, although estimates of the effect of the data center buildout on construction employment produce very different numbers, they all agree that it’s a significant positive impact.
4 October
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korrents.com
The political system is actually ruled by young staffers who consume extremist social media content.Their words
we're actually ruled by 27-year-old staffers who mainline extremist X and TikTok slop
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Chris Rufo is literally out here arguing that getting drunk and blowing off tests is Traditional White Culture that needs to be protected from Brown Supremacy It's Robin DiAngelo but with the races swapped
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the big AI labs are better at predicting the future than you are, because they have access to AI forecasting models that are better than anything anyone outside the labs has access to.
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Permutation CityTheir words
People who think AI is conscious need to read Permutation City and think about the implications
3 October
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