Jacob Trefethen
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6 September
10 November 2025
2 August 2025
From one piece AI could help lead to an Alzheimer's cure 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
From one piece AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cure 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
From one piece What does AI progress mean for medical progress? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Some models could be used both for good and ill, yes. Diffusion models in particular could be used by bad actors to hallucinate toxins or other harmful proteins.
AI could help lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
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Their words
The design of the initial molecules to test is pretty magic-feeling, and is happening already – but the arrival of new drugs prescribed by your doctor will not be magical and sudden.
AI could help lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
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korrents.com
AI tools are already making scientists more productive and creative, and more discoveries should follow.Their words
AI tools are helping make scientists more productive and creative already, and more discoveries should follow.
AI could help lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
+ 7 more
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Their words
Measles is technologically “solved”, but not everyone trusts the solutions or their messengers.
AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
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Their words
Research predominance in rich countries leads to skewed knowledge and product availability.
AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
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Their words
Yet the production methods still can’t make them below $10 per gram, so they’re still not cheap enough for some “obvious” applications like preventing kids getting malaria in a rainy season.
AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
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Their words
Going all in on AI is not the highest return-on-investment strategy if you care about human flourishing, even if AI might lead to rapid scientific advances.
AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
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korrents.com
Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.Their words
But I don’t think all bottlenecks on medical progress are equally AI-able in the next decade, and I don’t think all will become irrelevant.
What does AI progress mean for medical progress?blog.jacobtrefethen.com
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Their words
Rapid AI progress does not automatically mean rapid medical progress. If the point of AI progress is human flourishing, we must make other complementary investments too.
What does AI progress mean for medical progress?blog.jacobtrefethen.com
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Their words
Those are why I do not believe that AI could end disease within 10 years on its own, nor that 50-100 years of medical progress could occur 5-10 years after powerful AI due to AI progress alone
AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
14 June 2025
10 June 2025
29 May 2025
From one piece A Quantitative Approach to Vaccine Funding 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Infectious diseases as a category receive vastly less R&D spending from industry than non-communicable diseases, per death they cause, because they disproportionately kill people in lower- and middle-income countries where the payoff for making a cure is less lucrative.
A Quantitative Approach to Vaccine Fundingblog.jacobtrefethen.com
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Their words
Our punchline is that R&D spending varies by 10X+ across diseases for no good reason. I've been poking at that punchline for the last six or so years, from different directions, and I am confident it's true.
A Quantitative Approach to Vaccine Fundingblog.jacobtrefethen.com
1 March 2025
13 January 2025
20 September 2024
11 June 2024
3 June 2024
23 May 2024
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