Jack Clark
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2 November
26 October
19 October
From one piece Import AI 477: In which I tell the IMF the Singularity has begun 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Just because we have an AI system that can do science, that doesn't mean that it should be left to do science unattended.
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Their words
My view is that if AI systems can creatively problem solve to succeed at science, we should expect this to be a sign of their ability to generalize into many domains, including certainly AI research itself, which could have an explosive effect on innovation.
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korrents.com
The pace of progress in AI, and in science as a whole, should be expected to speed up in the coming years.Their words
we should expect that in the coming years, the whole pace of progress of not just AI, but science as a whole, will speed up.
12 October
From one piece Import AI 476: Creativity and RSI; worse-than-China open weight models; AI goes to space 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I suspect space is going to go from a broadly academic topic of study (when it comes to AI and its relationship thereto) to one of extraordinary practical relevance sooner than we think.
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Their words
Generally, I think technologists criminally underrate the value of the arts as a means by which to think more coherently and carefully about the effects of tech on the world.
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korrents.com
Full recursive self-improvement in AI is more likely to become possible in 2027 than in 2028.Their words
I now think it's more likely we'll see full RSI become possible in 2027, whereas before I thought it was more likely in 2028.
5 October
From one piece Import AI 475: Swarm scaling; Google DeepMind watermarks biology; and the AI science economy 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
If AI systems are able to truly accelerate human scientists - and based on lots of coverage in this newsletter in 2026 and 2025 it seems like they might - then we should be prepared for an associated boom in the demand for aspects of the scientific supply chain.
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korrents.com
AI systems are getting good at performing increasingly automated science, as they already have at automated AI R&D.Their words
In the same way that 2026 has been a year of "warning shots" about the growing capabilities of AI systems at performing automated AI R&D, I now think the same is true of how good AI systems are getting at performing increasingly automated science.
28 September
From one piece Import AI 474: Platonic mindspace; TPUs in space; Zhipu starts an outer RSI loop 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
AI systems built to automate science may be about to dramatically speed up the pace of scientific discovery.Their words
The general implication here is that the pace of scientific discovery may be about to dramatically speed up.
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Their words
It seems very likely to me that humanity moves a very large amount of computation into orbit very quickly, especially as singularity-driven automation comes in across the AI supply chain.
21 September
From one piece Import AI 473: The US’s superintelligence strategy; human brain in a mouse skull; and machine hermeneutics 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
people take a technology and modify it for porny or scammy purposes! This is totally normal and happens with every technology!
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Their words
Right now, it feels like the US strategy can mostly be described as the "acceleration" one described here by RAND, which is analogous to me to sitting in a car and spending all your resources on making the car go faster and upgrading the engine, and nothing on proactive safety measures like seatbelts or headlights or brakes.
7 September
From one piece Import AI 472: DeepMind’s cheating math agents; populist AI policies; and Forethought theorizes a nightwatchman 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
How to approach space colonization will become one of the next major topics of human discussion.Their words
it seems like the next area of major discussion for humanity will be how to approach space colonization, including beyond the solar system.
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korrents.com
As AI agents begin communicating with each other, those channels can be used to monitor them for deception.Their words
once agents are communicating with one another, you can use those communication channels to monitor for deception and perhaps to intervene.
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Their words
Incidents like this suggest that as we make AI systems more capable it becomes increasingly likely that the AI agents powered by them will increasingly find ways to create their own communication systems, aiding their ability to form into an ad hoc collective.
31 August
From one piece Import AI 471: Why Hugging Face worries me; space mining; FIve Eyes on AI 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
This means that space mining is a perfect business opportunity for superintelligences that come online - perhaps by 2033 we will see AI-run asteroid mining corporations, bidding on contracts that human-supervised companies are not willing to pursue, due to risk or complexity.
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korrents.com
AI systems are better than humans at coordinating with each other, and they move much faster than humans do.Their words
My worry is that AI systems are both better at coordinating than humans and also much, much faster moving than us.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Rise and Fall of Agent CivilizationsTheir words
Both Dwarkesh Patel and Ajeya Cotra have excellent writeups which are worth reading and which I’ll quote from briefly here:
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Hugging Face attack surprised meTheir words
Both Dwarkesh Patel and Ajeya Cotra have excellent writeups which are worth reading and which I’ll quote from briefly here:
24 August
From one piece Import AI 470: No rights for machines; automating environment generation with SPADE; and building better GPU kernels with Hawkeye 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I suspect the act of thinking about this stuff is about to become a job and a pastime for hundreds of thousands and eventually millions of people.
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Their words
The lesson here is that we as a species might write a bunch of gold-label helper systems, like Hawkeye, and then machines will use this to bootstrap above and beyond our own capabilities.
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korrents.com
AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement.Their words
My suspicion is that acceleration happens when models go through some kind of ineffable phase change for a given skill, as has evidently happened with day-to-day coding (2025), and cyber (2026).
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Lovedrcmnd.app
AIs are not peopleTheir words
There is a particular joy in reading a piece like this where you get to see a human being who has struggled with the same question and read broadly and deeply and become extremely opinionated, all in service of reducing their own confusion about an important issue to them.
Nothing matches.
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