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I predict that in the next 10 years software development will survive, but it will become like any other white-collar professional work. No more $200,000 salaries, unlimited vacation, or incredible employee bargaining power.
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So, it's hard to tell how much of like the loss of the past few years was AI versus the end of like zero interest rate policy and like the post-COVID crash. And I think it's more the latter, but like again, LLMs are still getting better.
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I think it is making it more popular. I don't know if it'll make it go mainstream, but it's definitely making it a lot more popular. It's bringing it from maybe like 0.1% to 0.3% which is huge.
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And often I found with my clients I have to tell them like it's doing a good job at generating the actual design, but in actually expressing what the design is supposed to do, it cannot do that yet. You have to do that part yourself.
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As a general thing we've seen like to get good results you have to already know how to get good results without it. It just helps you get good results faster.
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I think this project and writing about it and thinking about it has firmly moved me from the camp of we are definitely not to we probably are.