Brad DeLong
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19 October
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korrents.com
Natural-language interfaces are wonderful ways to interface with information-technology systems much of the time.Their words
Yes: natural-language interfaces are wonderful ways to interface with information-technology systems. Much of the time.
When Software ‘Bots Go Feral: MONDAY MAMLMSbraddelong.substack.com
18 October
17 October
15 October
- Mastodon
- NewsletterCROSSPOST: LARRY MacDONALD: How Karl Marx Achieved Financial Independence
- Mastodon
From one piece The First Time a Fed Easing Move Has Triggered a Sharp Jump in Long-Term Nominal Treasury Bond Rates: CHART OF THE DAY 2 beliefs · braddelong.substack.com
From one piece An Inflation Report That Is Disappointingly High: CHART OF THE DAY 2 beliefs · braddelong.substack.com
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korrents.com
LLMs cannot create and transmit meaning through the warping of language into new forms.Their words
That creation and transmission of meaning through the warping of language into new forms is not something an LLM, for which all there is is the text, can do.
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korrents.com
Bond traders now treat the Fed as one voice among several, rather than as the best-informed one.Their words
Breaking that rule tells you bond traders now treat the Fed as one voice among several, not as the best-informed one.
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Their words
That a Fed easing move is immediately followed by a sharp jump in long-term rates strongly suggests that the Federal Reserve has lost control over the narrative governing bond-market expectations.
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Their words
Thus for the Fed not to hike interest rates at its next meeting later this October is a highly political decision.
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The Fed’s odds of threading the needle and getting inflation back down to target while avoiding a recession get much lower
14 October
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Their words
But after 1917 the axis of global political economy and strategic polity was that everyone was much better off when the countries that were to become Valery Giscard d’Estaing, Helmut Schmidt, and Gerald Ford’s G-7 hung together (even though Germany and Italy required some—persuasion before they would see it that way). Trump has reversed that.
CROSSPOST: SEVA GUNITSKY: Trump’s “Near Abroad”braddelong.substack.com
13 October
From one piece CROSSPOST: JOHN GRUBER & BEN THOMPSON: Meanness & Claude 2 beliefs · braddelong.substack.com
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korrents.com
As LLMs are enmeshed in human cognition, they increasingly do not act as stochastic parrots.Their words
Properly trained, RAGed, and harnessed LLMs may still be stochastic parrot, but as they are enmeshed in the spheres of human cognition and public reason they increasingly do not act as stochastic parrot.
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korrents.com
LLMs will not give rise to a Digital God.Their words
It is not because it will give rise to a Digital God. To think that is still seems to me to be a category error of the same kind as thinking that a steamship is the same order of being as a dragon.
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korrents.com
Monetary policy works by managing expectations.Their words
Monetary policy works by managing expectations: For what moves spending is the market’s expected future path of short rates, which feeds into long rates, equity prices and exchange rates.
12 October
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Their words
The “Meditation”’ of Marcus Aurelius is not a Stoic textbook. It is a tired man trying to talk himself out of bed in the morning, and into doing a job he never wanted to have...
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Warsh’s press conference and the FOMC committee statements he is letting through are pointlessly opaque.
9 October
From one piece (SEMI-)CROSSPOST/HOISTED: MATTHEW YGLESIAS (2022): What I Learned Co-Founding Vox 3 beliefs · braddelong.substack.com
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korrents.com
LLMs are a newer, smaller shoggoth that condense human writing into useful but lossy summaries.Their words
LLMs are a newer, smaller shoggoth. They condense human writing into useful but lossy summaries, no lossier than prices, bureaucratic categories, & opinion polls.
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korrents.com
Readers will increasingly pay for domain-knowledge expertise that filters through AI-generated content.Their words
That will be a large part of what readers will increasingly pay for: domain-knowledge expertise visibly hacking through increasing amounts of AI-slop.
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Google Zero—Google driving zero traffic to anyone else’s website—is coming.
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Being discoverable is no longer the asset. Being trusted is.
8 October
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The proportional response of their prices to changes in interest rates should therefore be by far the highest. Interest rates go up. Their prices should go down, proportionately, the most. And yet it hasn’t happened.
7 October
From one piece CROSSPOST: NOAH SMITH: There Is No “Indian Question” 2 beliefs · braddelong.substack.com
From one piece The Largely-Fruitless Task of Trying to Make Sense of Human History: (LATE) TUESDAY TRENDS & TURMOIL 2 beliefs · braddelong.substack.com
From one piece CROSSPOST/HIGHLIGHTED: ROBERT FARLEY: Three Years After October 7, 2023: & Now Everything Is Worse 2 beliefs · braddelong.substack.com
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What is this American identity? It is not ethnic, not blood-and-soil.
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Their words
Only the American racist right is fearful that immigrants are not assimilating.
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korrents.com
Modern economic growth has doubled technological capabilities every generation since 1870.Their words
how modern economic growth since 1870 has doubled our technological capabilities every generation.
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korrents.com
All Grand Narratives are false, but having one is an essential foundation to being able to think at all.Their words
All Grand Narratives are false; but having a Grand Narrative is an essential foundation to being able to think at all
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Their words
Ernest Renan’s grim lesson about the necessity of historical forgetfulness applies not just to nations but to all human communities seeking peace an proserity: memory weaponized becomes a veto on human prosperity, peace, and life.
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Call it the political economy of violent commitment: once leaders, movements, and publics buy into a high-salience conflict with identity stakes, the feasible policies tilt toward prolongation rather than settlement.
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Their words
Journalists who do not count the zeroes and compare them to the proper magnitudes are not bystanders or generalists, but accomplices in the disinformation bullshit machine.
Nothing matches.
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