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Said and published

• Paul Krugman Newsletter 29 Aug Talking Interest Rates with Ricardo Caballero
• Tren Griffin x.com 1 Sept “Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices.” Warren Buffett "Yields and prices move inversely to one…
• Brad DeLong Newsletter 29 Aug Heading for a Large, Rapid Fall in Interest Rates?: CHART OF THE DAY
• Brad DeLong Newsletter 8 Sept Interest Rate-Hike Expectations: CHART OF THE DAY
• Ray Dalio Korrent 21 Aug The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities. Early in the final stage of the Big Debt Cycle, the market action reflects this dynamic via interest rates rising led by long-term rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s…
• Olivier Blanchard x.com 20 Aug …presidential elections? (the rest of the increase is due to an increase in interest rates around the world, not just…
• Tyler Cowen Korrent 1 Oct 2023 Interest rates have little effect on investment, and central banks have limited control over real interest rates. In the actual data, interest rates don’t seem to drive investment that much, and furthermore central bank influence over the real rate of interest typically is limited.
• Olivier Blanchard Korrent 1 Jun 2022 There is no tight relation between growth rates and interest rates, either theoretically or empirically. while the growth rate may well affect saving and investment, there is no tight relation between growth rates and interest rates, either on theoretical or empirical grounds.
• Olivier Blanchard Korrent 1 Jun 2022 Low interest rates reflect underlying fundamental economic factors rather than central bank policy choices. In other words, central banks are not to blame for low rates: these low rates just reflect underlying fundamental factors.
• Mr. Money Mustache Blog 4 Sept 2023 What to Do About These High Interest Rates
• Scott Sumner Changed their mind 6 Sept 2010 Aggressive quantitative easing should raise long-term interest rates, because effective monetary stimulus raises them. I predicted that aggressive QE would raise long term interest rates, a view which seemed to be refuted by the response on T-bond yields to the March 2009 Fed QE announcement.
• Olivier Blanchard Korrent 1 Jun 2022 The decades-long decline in real interest rates across major economies was not caused by the Global Financial Crisis or the Covid crisis. Real interest rates have steadily declined in all major economies for more than three decades. This decline was not caused by the Global Financial Crisis or the Covid crisis.
• Simon Johnson Loved 11 May 2012 A History of Interest Rates — Richard Sylla & Sidney Homer This is one of my favourite type of books, which are just about data.
• Olivier Blanchard Korrent 6 Nov 2023 With r-g near zero, any advanced economy running a primary deficit will see its debt-to-GDP ratio rise once existing debt is refinanced at current rates. Thus, once current debt has been refinanced and the average interest on debt reflects the higher long rates, absent changes in policy, debt ratios will increase.
• Olivier Blanchard Changed their mind 6 Nov 2023 When safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, rolling over public debt without later tax increases is feasible and public debt may carry no fiscal cost. Across advanced economies, the celebrated ( r - g ), i.e., the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate, appears to have durably changed sign or, at a minimum, to have gone from a substantially negative…
• Olivier Blanchard Korrent 1 Jun 2022 A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. If a fiscal expansion takes place when output is already at potential, monetary policy is likely to tighten, leading to higher interest rates and thus a smaller effect or even no effect of the fiscal expansion on output.