Roger Pielke Jr.
Political scientist who studies science policy, disasters and climate; writes The Honest Broker newsletter on climate, energy, sport and science politics. Author of The Climate Fix (2010) and The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change.
Roger Pielke Jr. did not write this page. ppll compiled it from their own words, each linked to the source. Is this you? · Report a mistake
What they believe
-
The new CMIP7 climate scenarios can be used to reintroduce the implausible RCP8.5 scenario into climate science and policy discussions.
yesterday's op-ed demonstrates how the new CMIP7 climate scenarios - discussed in detail here at THB - can be used to smuggle the implausibly extreme and retired RCP8.5 right back into discussions of climate science and policy.
rogerpielkejr.substack.comSaid 23 Sept 2026This on korrents
-
Climate policy cannot meaningfully reduce the number or intensity of extreme weather events within current or near-future lifetimes.
These scientists all well know that "climate policy" - however construed - cannot reduce the number or intensity of extreme weather events in any meaningful or detectable way in my lifetime, or even my future grandkids' lifetimes.
rogerpielkejr.substack.comSaid 17 Sept 2026This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 17 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
The new CMIP7 climate scenarios can be used to reintroduce the implausible RCP8.5 scenario into climate science and policy discussions.
yesterday's op-ed demonstrates how the new CMIP7 climate scenarios - discussed in detail here at THB - can be used to smuggle the implausibly extreme and retired RCP8.5 right back into discussions of climate science and policy.
A Trojan Horse effort to place RCP8.5 back at the center of climate science and policy Said 23 Sept 2026
The CMIP7 scenario extensions are not intended to represent plausible future forecasts.
However, such extensions are not created to represent plausible futures, and thus they provide no basis for forecasts or plausible projections of the future.
A Trojan Horse effort to place RCP8.5 back at the center of climate science and policy Said 23 Sept 2026
The CMIP7 HIGH scenario presented out to 2150 is essentially a repackaged version of RCP8.5.
Going forward, we should recognize that the CMIP7 HIGH scenario presented out to 2150 is just a repackaged RCP8.5.
A Trojan Horse effort to place RCP8.5 back at the center of climate science and policy Said 23 Sept 2026
Show 14 more
Climate policy cannot meaningfully reduce the number or intensity of extreme weather events within current or near-future lifetimes.
These scientists all well know that "climate policy" - however construed - cannot reduce the number or intensity of extreme weather events in any meaningful or detectable way in my lifetime, or even my future grandkids' lifetimes.
Taking Us for Fools Said 17 Sept 2026
The extreme event attribution methodology used by WWA assumes attribution rather than investigating it.
The creators of EEA have always been open about the fact that their claimed attribution of the likelihood or intensity of an event to causes is assumed, not shown or investigated.
Taking Us for Fools Said 17 Sept 2026
The WWA methodology allows any variable with an increasing trend to be attributed to climate change.
Further, under the WWA methodology any time series with a trend, up or down, - and in any context - can be "attributed to climate change."
Taking Us for Fools Said 17 Sept 2026
The National Academy of Sciences has been acting as a political advocate beyond its mandate.
The scandal is that the NASEM has been acting well beyond this mandate as a political advocate - trading on its authority and legitimacy to serve special interests, whether those are of its non-governmental funders, those charged with executing its projects, or its leaders.
The National Academy of Advocacy Said 1 Sept 2026
The National Academy of Sciences has become similar to partisan NGOs in its advocacy.
In 2026 there is not much that distinguishes the storied National Academy of Sciences from the myriad partisan NGOs advocating for everything under the sun - like the Union of Concerned Scientists or The Heartland Institute. The NASEM has become just another 501 (c)(3) organization pushing an agenda.
The National Academy of Advocacy Said 1 Sept 2026
Congress should amend the National Academy of Sciences' charter to prohibit non-governmental funding and require federal requests for studies.
Much reform is needed, but an important and straightforward first step would be for Congress to amend the Federal Charter for the NAS to prohibit funding from non-governmental organizations and require that all studies be requested by federal agencies or Congressional committees.
The National Academy of Advocacy Said 1 Sept 2026
A precipitating event is necessary but not sufficient for a disaster to result.
A precipitating event - a hurricane, an earthquake, or a glacial/rock collapse - is necessary for a disaster to result, but that event is never sufficient.
What Actually Caused the Nepal Disaster Said 29 Aug 2026
Human exposure and vulnerability are necessary elements of a disaster and are often the most effective factors to influence in the near term.
Human exposure and vulnerability are also necessary elements, and almost always the ones that we can most effectively influence in the very near term.
What Actually Caused the Nepal Disaster Said 29 Aug 2026
The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) is beyond fixing due to systemic and irreparable problems.
the administration's proposed amendment to NCA5 cannot succeed, because NCA5's problems are systemic and irreparable. NCA5 is beyond fixing.
I Wouldn't Start From Here Said 25 Aug 2026
The NCA5 mischaracterizes the RCP8.5 scenario as a likely outcome when it is actually an implausible and falsified scenario.
RCP8.5 was never a "worst case scenario" and its assumptions are not accurately characterized as "unlikely" but rather, the scenario is implausible and already falsified.
I Wouldn't Start From Here Said 25 Aug 2026
The NCA5 fails to accurately represent the scientific literature by cherry-picking and misrepresenting data.
In my areas of expertise the NCA5 failed to accurately represent the literature it was supposedly assessing, in favor of cherry picking and misrepresentations.
I Wouldn't Start From Here Said 25 Aug 2026
The notion of climate change has collapsed discussions of complex environmental-social-political issues into a cartoonish characterization of climate change as an all-purpose causal agent.
The notion of climate change has collapsed our discussions of complex environmental-social-political issues into a cartoonish characterization of "climate change" as an all-purpose causal agent responsible for just about everything that people don't like
Climate Change is Making Us Stupid Said 21 Aug 2026
How people talk and think about climate change has become less intelligent.
How we talk, and apparently think, about climate change has become stupider.
Climate Change is Making Us Stupid Said 21 Aug 2026
The NASEM has defined "climate change" in a way that makes detection and attribution unnecessary or assumed.
The NASEM has defined "climate change" in a way that makes detection (a la IPCC) unnecessary and attribution (a la IPCC) assumed away.
Climate Change is Making Us Stupid Said 21 Aug 2026
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Where they publish
Newsletter The Honest Broker Several posts a week on climate science and policy, disasters, energy and science advice
Open rogerpielkejr.substack.com
Link verified 24 Oct 2026.
x.com @RogerPielkeJr Posts on climate, disasters, energy and science politics
Link verified 24 Oct 2026.
About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter, especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked article and a belief on korrents.com are left in their original language.