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Daniel Lemire x.com
The gold standard in the statistical analysis of scientific data is a p-value of 0.05. Never mind what it means. It is the threshold people use to say the result did not occur by chance. There is a wide consensus. Nearly all experts treat it as the bar to statistical significance. I am quite certain that most do not know what it means or where the number comes from. Never mind that. In principle, it means that if you redo the experiment, the result should hold. At least, that's what most people hope when they hear that a result is 'statistically significant'. It often will not. If the origina…
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16 September
15 September
12 September
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the more that we see actors looking to weaponize without any very good maps of how and what they are doing or what kinds of unexpected repercussions might happen, the more we can expect not simply increased risks of tension and worry, but also people screwing up, doing dumb stuff.
4 September
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The efficient market hypothesis is a lie At best it is a very lossy heuristic The best things in life occur where EMH is wrong
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Keeping the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 runs as a plausible upper limit is particularly important given that recent research has emphasized the possibility that models are underestimating future warming.
19 August
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Derek Chauvin was unjustly convicted of murder, therefore he should be freed. The facts show that he was not the cause of death, nor did he at any time intend for a death to occur. Whatever else he may be, he is not a murderer. That is the truth.
29 July
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The transformation to come will be decidedly nonlinear, meaning it will not occur as small impacts over many years but rather a series of infrequent, huge events of enormous destructive power.
17 July
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korrents.com
Fuel buildup from forest mismanagement cannot occur in forests that were never actively managedTheir words
You cannot have a fuel-buildup from forest mismanagement in a forest you were never managing.
27 May
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We are about to see the Great Clean Energy Acceleration 2.0 - a discontinuity in energy markets as profound as the oil shocks of the 1970s, and one that could bring forward the peak in fossil fuel use and emissions to this side of 2030.
9 December 2025
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There’s a consistent history of transformational technologies generating excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in more infrastructure than is needed and asset prices that prove to have been too high. The excesses accelerate the adoption of the technology in a way that wouldn’t occur in their absence.
22 October 2025
2 August 2025
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Those are why I do not believe that AI could end disease within 10 years on its own, nor that 50-100 years of medical progress could occur 5-10 years after powerful AI due to AI progress alone
AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
18 June 2025
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With AI, breakout times could conceivably be very short - it could be hours, minutes, or even seconds for some very specific but important change to occur.
12 May 2025
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korrents.com
Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end.Their words
You can't predict when they happen, how deep they'll go, or when they will recover.
9 March 2025
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I'm hopeful this framework will turn out to be a much more robust style for writing performance-sensitive code, especially over time and as compilers evolve.
16 October 2024
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korrents.com
The worldwide flood traditions record the Younger Dryas, not local floods that storytellers mistook for global ones.Their words
I’m not persuaded by that, particularly since we know there was a nasty epoch, the Younger Dryas, when flooding did occur, and when the Earth was subjected to events cataclysmic enough to extinguish entirely the megafauna of the ice age.
27 April 2024
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