AI plausibly increases the risk at the margin. Whether that increase is small or catastrophic depends on factors such as AI capability trajectories, biosecurity responses, governance, etc.
They tended to underweight the endogenous response of political and military institutions to the catastrophe—the emergence of second-strike forces, elaborate command systems, crisis management, and above all mutually assured retaliation.
And what I had to learn was the reason that people come to me with those out of proportion responses is because that's what they need. They need a hero or they need a villain. and their need for a hero or a villain has nothing to do with me. If it wasn't me, they'd be contacting you. They'd be contacting somebody else. It really doesn't have anything to to do about me.
Um so if you say okay well we're going to instead of just running this model once we're going to run it five times and take the best of the five responses or like ask a judge which one it thinks is best then you can get much higher scores than that model. And so it's really easy to make something that looks a lot better on paper but is actually not better once you control for the amount of test time compute.
Its responses are, in my view, pretty bland and not very high-quality. I did a side-by-side test of asking Local Deep Research a question, then asking pi the same question (telling it to use searxng to make as many internet searches as needed), and I fed both outputs into an LLM to ask which is better.
There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we’ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before.
I mentioned FastScripts for running quick scripts, but I also use TextExpander extensively, particularly for accelerating responses to customer support email.
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