No typing-pool annihilation this time, at least not so far, and probably never. AI isn’t killing occupations, but watch out for the elasticity of demand!: **Retraining Workers for “AI”: CHART OF THE DAY** Firms are using AI as an excuse for layoffs, but when the New York Fed asked them if that was what they were really doing, they said: no, we are retraining workers instead... https://braddelong.substack.com/p/retraining-workers-for-ai-chart-of > 2026-09-03
And I think what we're seeing right now with some of the layoffs is a testament to that, not AI. It's just that during the pandemic, a bunch of overhiring went on, and now AI is a convenient excuse to slim down. But I do also think AI is going to expose some roles as just not being productive ways for humans to spend their time, and therefore we must come up with new ways of spending their time.
I would prioritize trying to index, but just given how fast AI could, you know, hit the world. But, um I definitely wouldn't just rely on that because like it could the the sort of um messy middle type cases or the just a long timelines cases on which like you we don't get it anything like AGI all that soon.
Because they're all starting to spend their own salaries in tokens. And so, at least for a while, if you want your engineers to be as productive as possible, you're going to have to get rid of half of them to make the other half maximally productive.
And that's the thing, it's the pool of data, and I think that's what people miss. We as paleontologists get caught up on single superlative specimens and then try and treat them as a silver bullet almost.
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