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korrents.com
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.Their words
Still, I expect general AI progress to increasingly be bottlenecked by confidence in monitoring.
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6 September
29 August
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Their words
Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder than just finding power, as you also need to build out all the transformers, wiring, liquid-cooling, (massive) chillers & complex networking.
14 August
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Their words
buuuut my roadmap is’nt ten times shorter. and I’m definitely not ten times better at deciding what is worth building. teams haven’t started casually shipping a year of product work every month. you can look around and and it’s hard to say what software has gotten meaningfully better in the last year.
11 August
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Their words
the most powerful actors for whom this is the biggest concern if these guard rails or the constitution or whatever is getting in the way that will just get steamrolled and so the constitution will only be you know hitting the everyday man rather than hitting governments.
10 August
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Their words
Now, if I do web stuff, it's easy to create a cloud session. If I do like something that requires Mac OS, that's already where like 99% of the tools fail me.
26 July
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Their words
Turns out paralegals are growing like crazy. And the reason for that is because the backlog of lawsuits is really high, and now these law firms could get a lot more cases through. And in order to do so, you got to hire more people.
21 July
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Their words
I told him what I believe: that in the age of AI, medicine will be bottlenecked more than ever by regulation and the grind of clinical trials, and that billions poured into faster pre-clinical research won’t touch that problem, unsexy as it is.
Intelligence is not the main bottleneckwritingruxandrabio.com
18 June
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korrents.com
The binding constraints on AI's growth are power, helium and memory — and almost nobody has noticed the helium one.Their words
One is of course everybody knows power constraint. Some country the power they just don't have that. They get impacted. And then secondly, a lot of people didn't realize the helium impact can be also very significant for semiconductor. And then the thirdly, is everybody know right now memory is a bigger shortage.
13 March
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Their words
Yeah, I think the biggest bottleneck is compute and for that the longest lead time supply chains are not power or data centers. They're actually the semiconductor supply chain themselves, right? It switches back from being power and data center uh as a major bottleneck to chips.
12 February
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Their words
We show that equilibrium generically occurs at neither the Harberger nor Glaeser-Luttmer benchmark. Cost-minimizing suppliers drive allocations to vertices, not interiors. Corners are not an assumption but an outcome about what cost-minimizing suppliers choose. The correct benchmark is corners, not random, and corners generate qualitatively different welfare properties: losses far larger than either efficient or random distributions, and discontinuous jumps from small parameter perturbations.
10 December 2025
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Their words
Parents want this. They know social media can harm their children, yet many feel trapped because everyone else’s kids are already online.
5 December 2025
15 August 2025
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Their words
They're focused on the chips, right? Because they understand like the key bottleneck is the chips, not the solar power, right?
2 August 2025
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Their words
Those are why I do not believe that AI could end disease within 10 years on its own, nor that 50-100 years of medical progress could occur 5-10 years after powerful AI due to AI progress alone
AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
28 May 2025
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korrents.com
The binding constraint on building anything in America is permitting and litigation, not money.Their words
Political costs and civic opposition will often make a technology unviable regardless of how the dollars and cents add up.
14 April 2025
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korrents.com
The binding constraint on building anything in America is permitting and litigation, not money.Their words
Endless lawsuits, cost-exploding contracting requirements, decades to get permits, and more bedevil any attempt to invest here.
10 June 2024
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korrents.com
Available power, not land or capital, is what now limits how many data centres get built.Their words
In particular, operating a data center requires large amounts of electricity, and available power is fast becoming the binding constraint on data center construction.
10 November 2023
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korrents.com
The binding constraint on building anything in America is permitting and litigation, not money.Their words
Yet solar development is hopelessly snarled by dozens of different development regulations which begin with the assumption that it will permanently and severely harm the environment unless proven otherwise, at exhaustive length.
15 July 2022
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Their words
In order to move this army or sustain it in place it is thus necessary to ensure a massive and relatively continuous supply of food to the army. Failure to do that will result in the army falling apart long before it comes anywhere close to the enemy.
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