Adam Kucharski
Epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who studies infectious-disease outbreaks. Author of The Rules of Contagion and Proof. Writes the Understanding the unseen newsletter on epidemiology, evidence and AI.
Adam Kucharski did not write this page. ppll compiled it from their own words, each linked to the source. Is this you? · Report a mistake
What they believe
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Seasonal epidemics are driven by a combination of biological and epidemiological factors.
There will be a combination of biological and epidemiological factors behind the patterns we observe. And if that combination of factors changes, we shouldn't necessarily expect epidemics at the same time of year.
kucharski.substack.comSaid 22 Oct 2026This on korrents
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People often over-index on the specifics of a pathogen when evaluating a new disease risk rather than considering the wider context in which it is emerging.
This focus on the specifics of the content is a common approach when dealing with information that is spreading, much like people often over-index on the pathogen itself when evaluating a new disease risk, rather than considering the wider context in which it is emerging.
kucharski.substack.comSaid 21 Oct 2026This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 12 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
Seasonal epidemics are driven by a combination of biological and epidemiological factors.
There will be a combination of biological and epidemiological factors behind the patterns we observe. And if that combination of factors changes, we shouldn't necessarily expect epidemics at the same time of year.
Understanding the unseen Said 22 Oct 2026
Unusually cool weather does not appear to be a valid explanation for the early rise in flu cases.
In short, unusually cool weather doesn't seem to hold up well as an explanation.
Understanding the unseen Said 22 Oct 2026
The early rise in flu is likely not driven by schools reopening.
If we look at school-age children (5 to 14), the rise was later and smaller, and began in late August, during the summer holidays (English schools go back in early September). Schools out... as a theory currently, it would appear.
Understanding the unseen Said 22 Oct 2026
Show 9 more
People often over-index on the specifics of a pathogen when evaluating a new disease risk rather than considering the wider context in which it is emerging.
This focus on the specifics of the content is a common approach when dealing with information that is spreading, much like people often over-index on the pathogen itself when evaluating a new disease risk, rather than considering the wider context in which it is emerging.
Understanding the unseen Said 21 Oct 2026
In the heat of the moment, people often share false content that triggers an emotional response or is aligned with their political views.
In the heat of the moment, though, they would often share false content that triggered an emotional response or was aligned with their political views.
Understanding the unseen Said 21 Oct 2026
People with dementia can be remarkably good at filling gaps in memory with plausible conversation, especially if they have had jobs involving talking to many people.
People can be remarkably good at filling gaps in memory with plausible conversation, especially if they've had jobs that involved talking to a lot of people.
Understanding the unseen Said 17 Sept 2026
Well-meaning reassurance from others can make the process of providing support for someone with dementia harder and slower.
In my experience, this only makes the process of providing support harder and slower. Denial, and the delays it brings, gets reinforced by the well-meaning remarks of people who don't see the day-to-day problems.
Understanding the unseen Said 17 Sept 2026
Countries could potentially increase their GDP by reducing the time people spend unwinding scams and inappropriate salesmanship while supporting relatives with dementia.
I'm no economist, but I suspect countries could give themselves a decent GDP bump by reducing all the time people have to spend unwinding scams and inappropriate salesmanship while supporting relatives with dementia.
Understanding the unseen Said 17 Sept 2026
Domain knowledge can be more important than data when investigating cause-and-effect using AI.
When investigating cause-and-effect, AI shows that domain knowledge can matter more than data
Understanding the unseen Said 12 Sept 2026
Uncovering and encoding information about organization or population-specific quirks can be more valuable than adding more data.
But if there are organisation or population-specific quirks, uncovering and encoding information about these can be much more valuable than adding more rows to a misinterpreted spreadsheet.
Understanding the unseen Said 12 Sept 2026
A journal or publisher drawing a line under a past plagiarism incident with minor corrections may not represent the full story.
But we shouldn't assume that just because a journal or publisher drew a line under a past incident, with some additional quotation marks or references, that it's always the full story.
Understanding the unseen Said 2 Aug 2026
'Everyone gets it wrong sometimes' is a bad argument when assessing track records.
'Everyone gets it wrong sometimes' is a bad argument when assessing track records
Understanding the unseen Said 2 Aug 2026
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Where they publish
Site kucharski.io Personal site: research, books, articles and talks
Link verified 24 Oct 2026.
Newsletter Understanding the unseen Essays on outbreaks, statistics, how to judge evidence, and AI
Link verified 24 Oct 2026.
x.com @AdamJKucharski Posts on epidemiology and his writing
Link verified 24 Oct 2026.
GitHub adamkucharski Code for outbreak analysis and modelling
Link verified 24 Oct 2026.
About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter, especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked article and a belief on korrents.com are left in their original language.